Another Monday, another set of polling from Fox/Rasmussen. These polls from a republican-leaning pollster confirm that the Obama trend is continuing. As an initial matter, I think the mere fact that the selected list of battlegrounds that Rasmussen chooses to poll each Monday are all states that Bush won (many of which by large margins, and two of which even Clinton never won) is an incredible sign. I'm not sure why Rasmussen chose to omit CO from the list; perhaps it's settling into more solidly Obama territory?
Here are the results:
FL: Obama 51, McCain 46. In its last poll, Rasmussen had Obama up 3 in FL. I can't remember the last poll to have Obama trailing in this massive swing state.
MO: Obama 50, McCain 47. This is identical to last week's result. This is in line (accounting for Ras's republican lean) with the earlier SUSApoll showing a 51-43 Obama lead.
NC: Obama 48, McCain 48 Obama was up 1 in the last Rasmussen poll, so this reflects a very slight negative movement (though it's probably just noise).
OH: Obama 49, McCain 47. Before this poll, Obama had never led in a Rasmussen poll of Ohio. First time for everything!
VA: Obama 50, McCain 47. Up 1 point from the last poll, and it is good to see him up in this last-voted-democrat-in-1964 red state.
I'll add some more thoughts when I've had a chance to review the polling reports more closely, but I wanted to get this news out as soon as possible.
-- One thing to keep in mind, assuming that Obama hangs on to every state that either Kerry or Gore won (i.e., Kerry states plus IA/NM = Gore states plus NH), he only needs to win one of the above states, or Colorado.
Update: As promised, here are some additional thoughts and tidbits:
In Florida:
While McCain leads among White Voters, he trails among Hispanic voters 64% to 34%.
and
Forty-five percent (45%) say they would be very or extremely comfortable with Obama in the White House. Forty-one percent (41%) say the same of McCain.
In Missouri:
Forty-nine percent (49%) of Missouri voters rate the economy as the number one issue in the election, while 18% say national security is most important. On the issues of the economy and jobs, voters trust Obama over McCain 52% to 43%. McCain has the edge in voter trust 50% to 45% in the areas of national security and the War on Terror.
and
Thirty-three percent (33%) say they would be extremely comfortable with Obama as president, but 37% say they would be not at all comfortable if that happened. Only 22% would be extremely comfortable if McCain was president, while 32% say they would be not at all comfortable with the Republican in the White House.
In Ohio:
On the top issue of the economy, Obama has a 50% to 45% advantage. McCain leads his opponent on national security, 52% to 43%.
In Virginia:
More voters in Virginia say they would be extremely comfortable with an Obama presidency (33%) than a McCain presidency (24%).
So we see a few important trends and developments that I think are more cruicial to predicting the actual outcome on election day than the great topline numbers themselves:
-- First, in these Bush-dominated swing states, voters continue to trust Obama more on economy, the number one issue, over McCain. The economy continues to be the number one issue to voters nationwide and in individual states by large margins.
-- Second, McCain's lead on his only remaining supposed strength -- national security -- is evaporating. This suggests that even if there is some global incident in the next 3 weeks, it may not move the polls that much in favor of McCain.
-- Third, voters are comfortable with the idea of a President Obama. In a lot of ways, moreso than with a President McCain. This is key.
Update II: Rec list?? Thanks guys! This is a first for me. I'll try to let the fact that it's a diary that has barely any content that I generated myself not dissuade me from other, more substantive diaries!