We have John McCain right where we want him. With just three weeks left, Obama is continuing to do well in the daily tracking polls (much to the chagrin of Matt Drudge). How could things possibly get bad at this point? Well, they can due to a confluence of various factors that we must keep on guard against. This is NOT intended to be a "concern diary", as I feel Obama is doing what he needs to do correctly at this point. However, I believe that he could face numerous challenges over the coming weeks that could help McCain and lead to a narrower race by election day.
Factor #1: The economy. While the broader economy is still in the shitter, and while we will likely get the worst recession since the early 1980's it looks hopeful that we may be able to avoid a massive depression-style liquidity problem. With the Dow up 900 points today alone in the wake of a massive international plan to assist the world's credit and bank systems, it looks like things may have bottomed out (or it could be a "dead cat bounce" but we shall see whether this is the case in the coming days and weeks).
While the economy will still be the number one issue, fear over it will subside to a modest extent, especially with gas prices coming down to the $3.00 level. Since Obama's rally for the past 3-4 weeks has been based on the economy, he could end up shedding a few points over this.
Factor #2: Ayers, Acorn, and more lies.
I don't think that the McCain smears will have the same effect on Obama that the Swiftboat liars had on Kerry in 2004, but to reiterate, Obama must keep persistent is denouncing them. So far he has done a great job of fighting the lies about him and Ayers. However, considering how the "Obama is a Muslim" lie has continued to survive even after being debunked repeatedly shows that it could lure in some undecideds, at least in more conservative swing states.
Factor #3: Twin political hurricanes in Florida: While Obama continues to poll well in the state, two pieces of news that could hurt his standing have come out over the past few days.
The first being Fidel Castro, who has recently come out and praised Obama's candidacy. Regardless of whether or not you may agree with the substance of his statements on racism in this country, Obama cannot afford to be tied in any way to him in the minds of Cuban-Americans in places such as "Little Havana":
http://www.miamiherald.com/...
In addition, we find that Tim Mahoney, the man who unseated Mark Foley in FL-16 just two years ago, at the center of a sex scandal of his own. While his doesn't involve teenage boys, it's still politically damaging, and while FL-16 is a Republican-leaning district already, we have to watch out for any impact that Mahoney's actions may have statewide.
Factor #4: October Surprises.
There isn't much that one can do about them, except to anticipate which will be the most likely and try to blunt them pre-emptively. The possibility of Osama Bin Laden sending out another tape giving a roundabout endorsement of the GOP, like he did in 2004, should not be discounted, although I doubt that we'll see him captured by then, and if he turns up dead, I like many others, will be asking "how long was he in the freezer?" just out of cynicism
If Obama wants to pre-empt OBL, PerryX offered a good bit of advice, jokingly, on how to take the smirk of of Bin Laden's face (and Bush's and McCain's).
...While I don't think that these factors could create a Truman-style comeback for McCain, it wouldn't surprise me to see Obama's lead go from approximately 7-12 points down to 2-5. In other words, the race could be where it was during the summer.