I happen to live in California. Some time ago, Tom Bradley was running for governor of California and the polls had him ahead just before the election. He was ahead enough that everyone thought he was going to win. Instead he lost. So, if he was ahead in the polls, why did he lose?
One answer has been given that regards the inability of polling to measure the affect that people gave answers in the polling that were not true. Bradley was black and people said they were going to vote for him, but instead voted for the white candidate because of various reasons, mainly attributed to racism. This has been referred to as 'the Bradley affect' and has been mentioned as possibly happening in this election with Obama. This effect is now a controversial topic and some people are dismissing it because it occurred so long ago. However, being on the ground in California and discussing it with my friends, I have reached a different conclusion as to what actually happened in California and how we can mostly prevent the Bradley affect from happening to Obama.
After the Bradley election loss, I really took a look at what happened. I observed the things that happened and also talked with other people on what they observed. These were just observations from my part of the state and the parts of the state where other people lived. So, it was just certain areas of the state and not a real scientific analysis. There were two thing that were fairly common that came up in the discussion with them. Campaign efforts for Bradley in most areas of the state seemed to be in a 'coasting mode'. Bradley was going to win anyway so we could relax. Where the campaign had been intense before, it seemed to lack the same intensity at the end to get out the vote among other things. Also, this was before the Florida debacle and votes were considered not worth as much. A couple of people for Bradley didn't vote at all. He was going to win anyway!!! (It really baffles me as to why some people don't think other issues and candidates aren't important also.) I also admit that racism could have been a factor, but I really don't think these other two factors of campaign efforts, and people not voting because he was ahead, have been considered enough in the Bradley affect. So, how can we prevent this happening again?
People who are for Obama and other good candidates need to keep working to get them elected. If you live in a very safe state or area where the candidate is way ahead you are probably okay to divert your efforts to other areas of the country. It is probably okay to work in other areas if your candidate or issue is way behind, and I mean way behind at this point. In Obama's case though he wants to rack up as many votes as possible in all areas. However, where ever you are making afforts, if the lead isn't very substantial then you need to keep working where you are at. You are the best doing it because you know the local area. There are many ways to help out even if you are unable to send money. Some examples of what has been done with my efforts.
I talked to a friend in Florida who wasn't decided yet who to vote for although she was leaning Obama. Even though abortion was a big issue, she had enough of the Republicans. I made sure she was registered and she was, I gave her some info about Obama's stance on abortion. We also talked about Palin a lot and her qualifications. I talked with her a week later and she had researched the Obama and McCain websites and now was overwhelmingly for Obama. There are other things I have done besides talking with people. I emailed this one candidate about his website donate function not working. He fixed it real quick and now more money is flowing into his campaign. I read this one story about Palin in a fairly obscure publication and emailed it to a blogger in Alaska. He published it in his blog and now that story is all over Alaska. So, I am giving examples of creative ways you can help get good candidates elected. These and other efforts have to be made all the way to and including election day. When all the votes are counted and certified is when we can possibly start relaxing. Until then, no candidate or other issue has won.
So, I want to emphasize, regardless of how far ahead in the polls someone or something seems to be we need to keep on working for that person to win or that ballot initiative to pass or lose. We are so close, but we need to keep on working to make sure it happens. It's not over until it's over. I would really like to see a very prominent and strong reminder of this everyday on this website. I know there is mention of crushing the Republican party and I agree with that. This is the way to do it. I have included a poll to see if you agree with the importance of doing this.