At the moment, Democrats are ahead in eight Senate races across the country. If this holds true, the party will have 57 senators, plus Bernie Sanders and Joe Lieberman. Whatever else you think of Joe, his vote record on domestic issues has not changed in any substantive way over the past few years - he is highly unlikely to participate in Republican filibusters, unless they deal with foreign policy.
But, if we get to 59, how could Obama get to the 60th seat? The easiest way is to nominate a Republican senator to a cabinet position. The number of choices is less than you think. Let's see who is going to be on the short list.
To begin with, for the purposes of this exercise, I am anticipating the Democrats will pick up 8 senate seats (AK, CO, MN, NC, NH, NM, OR, and VA). I am also assuming that the Democrats will pick up the governorship of Missouri.
It is commonly known that in the face of a vacancy, the governor appoints a replacement senator to fill the term until a "special election," which by custom but not law generally happens whenever the next congressional election is scheduled. There are some exceptions, including Massachusetts, Utah, and Alaska, but many of these are unimportant, to the analysis, as they lack either a Democratic governor, or any Republican senator. Let's start with three lists
Rep Governor, 2 Dem Senators: CA, CT, HI, MN, ND, RI, VT
Any nomination here would be a loss to the Democratic caucus.
Dem Governor, 2 Dem Senators: AR, CO, DE, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NJ, NM, NY, OR, VA, WA, WI, WV
These states would effectively be a zero sum game. Given the election of Obama/Biden means there will already be two senate vacancies to be filled by gubernatorial appointments, I doubt we'll see any more. Oregon and Wisconsin are special cases, as the Governor cannot nominate a replacement.
Rep Governor, Senators split or both Rep: AK, AL, FL, GA, ID, LA, MS, NE, NV, SC, SD, TX, UT
None of these offer good options for Obama. At best he would be replacing one Republican with another, but at worst he would again cause the Democratic Senate caucus to lose a crucial member.
To the ranks above, we can also add Arizona and Wyoming, where the governors are required to nominate someone affiliated with the outgoing senator's party. Edit: Oklahoma requires special elections if a seat becomes vacant before March 1st of an odd-numbered year.
So, we're whittled down now to a group of 14 Republican senators, who could be nominated to a cabinet position by Obama, and replaced by Democratic governors with a Democrat. They are:
Chuck Grassley: Iowa - Old and fairly moderate. Probably a good target for Secretary of Agriculture.
Pat Roberts: Kansas - A wingnut who has already announced his retirement in 2010.
Sam Brownback: Kansas - And monkeys might fly out of my butt!
Mitch McConnell: Kentucky - Hell would freeze over before he took a cabinet position in the Obama administration.
Jim Bunning: Kentucky - Senile, probably going to lose in 2010 anyway.
Olympia Snowe: Maine - Probably the most talked about potential sitting Republican for an Obama cabinet.
Susan Collins: Maine - Given she's running for re-election this year, it seems mighty unlikely.
Kit Bond: Missouri - Fairly wingnutty and undistinguished, but he's weak for 2010 and may want a way out.
Judd Gregg: New Hampshire - Though New Hampshire is swinging towards the Democrats, Gregg remains popular, and would probably prevail if he ran again in 2010. He's young enough he could have several more terms in the Senate as well. It's hard to see what a cabinet position would net him. On the other hand, it would help Obama incredibly, as it's a seat the Republicans would otherwise likely keep for a decade or more.
Richard Burr: North Carolina - He'll definitely be under threat in 2010, as he's a weak and unpopular senator. He's fairly wingnutty however, and it's hard to see the Obama administration gaining anything from having him in the cabinet.
George Voinovich: Ohio - An interesting option. Voinovich is fairly moderate, unhappy with the direction of his party on some issues, is fairly old, and is up for election in 2010. There is really no reason for him to stick around in the Senate.
Arlen Specter: Pennsylvania - Although Arlen is old, moderate, and endangered in 2010, I just don't see him in an Obama cabinet. The fact is, he'll probably not join in too many Republican filibusters regardless. He is the only Republican cosponsor of the Employee Free Choice Act, and on many of the other crucial economic votes in the coming congressional term, his vote will be just as good as a Dem. I do see him potentially switching parties however.
Lamar Alexander: Tennessee - Lamar! might not be a total wingnut, but he's part of the Republican senate leadership. If he were 10 years older I could see it as part of the sunset of his career, but I just don't see it.
Bob Corker: Tennessee - Corker is not a total wingnut, but he's just starting his Senate career, well in line with the Republican mainstream. In addition, he's young enough to wait it out till 2012 or later in hopes the Republicans make a comeback in the Senate:
So, to conclude, I think that Obama really only has a short list of five, Grassley, Snowe, Gregg, Voinovich, and Specter.
What do you guys think?