With 21 days left until the election, like everyone else I've been keeping an anxious eye on the national and state polls. One thing that's been discussed a lot lately is early voting. Today's polls give Obama supporters good reason to be optimistic in some key swing states.
New Mexico
New Mexico is considered a good opportunity for Obama, and one of the three states that made up his original map to the white house (along with Iowa and Colorado).
Survey USA released a new poll tonight showing Obama leading McCain 52-45. Then there's this:
Absentee voting began in New Mexico six days ago. Among the 10% of New Mexico voters who say they have already voted, Obama leads by 23 points. Among likely voters, Obama leads by 6.
If accurate, that's simply huge. I've read where as much as 50% of the votes cast in New Mexico will be early votes. If this trend continues, McCain would have to score a gigantic lopsided win on election day to offset the early votes and win the state. Ain't likely to happen.
Ohio
SUSA also polled Ohio today and finds Obama leading 50-45. Here's what they said about early voting:
Of the 12% of respondents who tell SurveyUSA they have already voted, Obama leads by 18. Of the 88% of respondents who tell SurveyUSA they are certain to vote before the deadline, Obama leads by 4.
Now, someone whose better at math would need to crunch the numbers. But if Obama can continue to hold a double digit lead among early voters in Ohio, and early voters end up constituting as much as 20% of the total vote there, then McCain will have to make up some big deficits on election day to win Ohio.
This, of course, is why Republicans and their friends in the media are talking so much about ACORN and are filing lawsuits left and right. They know early voting is killing them and they're setting the stage for a legal showdown.
Anyone else have info on early polling and the difference it could be making in some swing states?