By Jwilkes from Eyes on Obama:
The reality is that Obama stands an incredible chance of swiping Georgia out from underneath John McCain ’s feet, potentially adding to what is already looking like a formidable electoral haul. Here’s why.
Of all the former Bush states that will potentially end up in Obama’s column on Election Day, none of them really surprise me. Florida? Of course not. That state was close in 2004 and a nail biter in 2000. The same goes for Iowa, New Mexico, and Ohio. States like Virginia, Missouri, and Colorado have been steadily electing more and more Democrats to statewide and federal office over the past several years, so the fact that those are trending toward Barack Obama doesn’t really shock me either. North Carolina, Nevada? No big deal.
What really blows my mind is the very idea that a state like Georgia could reasonably be in contention. Here you have a Deep South state that has voted for just two Democratic candidates in the last 40 years (both of whom were southerners, and one of whom happened to be a Georgian himself), and GOP presidential nominee John McCain is having trouble holding onto it...truly astounding.
But sure enough, the Peach State, despite having voted overwhelmingly twice for George W. Bush (by double digits both times, 17% in ’04 and 12% in ’00), is favoring McCain by just 6.8 points, according to the current RealClearPolitics average. And even that number may be a little optimistic to the GOP.
The reality is that Obama stands an incredible chance of swiping Georgia out from underneath John McCain’s feet, potentially adding to what is already looking like a formidable electoral haul. Here’s why.
First, Democrats have been on a mission over the past several years to add new voters to the rolls. Obama has personally made it a goal of his campaign to specifically target those efforts in Georgia. Since 2006, 337,000 new voters have registered in the state. Now, Georgia’s Secretary of State doesn’t keep track of exactly which party new voters have joined. But consider the fact that nationally, Democrats have added some two million new voters. Republicans have lost close to 350,000.
Now, newly registered voters generally aren’t counted among the "likely voters" surveyed in the state-by-state polls. In 2004, Georgia was decided by just over 500,000 votes in a blowout for George W. Bush. With how close things are this time around, the addition of as many as 337,000 new Democratic voters could be enough to swing Georgia into the blue on its own.
But luckily for Obama, there are still other factors at play. That factor is Bob Barr, the former Georgia congressman and current libertarian nominee for president. As of mid summer, Barr was polling at 8% according to an Insider/Advantage study. Barr will poll nowhere better than his home state. Still, let’s be conservative and say that come Election Day, the former Congressman garners 5% of the vote. In all likelihood that 5% is coming out of McCain’s totals. In 2004, that would have meant 165,000 votes. Add that to the 335,000 new registered voters, and you have 515,000 ballots swinging to Democrat. That would have more than covered the 2004 deficit between Bush and Kerry.
Neither Obama’s strong candidacy, Bob Barr’s libertarian bid, or the 337,000 new voters have put Georgia in play on their own. But Obama’s strong national candidacy created a tight enough race that the combination of Barr and the new Democratic voters add up to something of a perfect political storm, the winds from which could very well propel Obama to victory in Georgia.