McCain's essential problem -- he has lost his "voice."
I remember previous elections in which candidates, who were down in the polls, came back at the end to narrow the race. What lead to their comebacks? These candidates finally "found their voice." Examples include Jerry Ford in 1976, Al Gore in 2000, and John Kerry in 2004. While none of them won, each managed to make the race closer in the last weeks of their campaigns.
It is virtually impossible for John McCain, however, to do this. For the reason why, read below the fold...
I'm not alone in saying that I used to like John McCain, despite the fact that I disagree with him on many issues. McCain was an attractive candidate in the 2000 Republican primaries. He rode the "Straight Talk Express," gave honest opinions in response to questions at town hall meetings, expressing honest disagreement at times with questioners. He said some honest, "mavericky" things (such as condemning Jerry Falwell as an agent of intolerance). About his only failing in 2000 came when he could not muster the courage to state his true opinion about South Carolina's flying the Confederate flag. We trust and admire an honest person who speaks out of his or her own integrity.
The comment has been made that "the wheels have come off the Straight Talk Express." I would put it a different way: John McCain has lost his "voice." He has lost touch with his true center (in a Buddhist sense). Taken over by his handlers in the 2008 primary, McCain constructed a message designed to appeal to the Republican base. He had to do this in order to win the nomination. Moreover, McCain made further decisions to appease that base — most notably, selecting Sarah Palin as his running mate. His convention adopted a Platform, and he delivered an acceptance speech, all intended to secure the allegiance of that base. Finally, has adopted the very Rovian campaign tactics he despises. In other words, McCain has a platform, message, and campaign totally out of sync with who he really is.
Now McCain finds himself trapped. This former straight-talker comes across as an inauthentic shadow of his self. He is not at ease with the candidate he has become. His inner frustration shows in his body language and comes through in the hollowness of his voice. For McCain to narrow the race, he would have to recover his true "voice." But he cannot recover his "voice" without abandoning his campaign's message and tactics and getting back to his true center, the authentic John McCain we saw in 2000. I see this as a virtually impossible task and conclude that is is virtually impossible for John McCain to recover his "voice."
Bottom line: this campaign is pretty much over, all except for the voting.