Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 10/14-15. Likely voters. MoE 4% (9/8-10 results)
Wicker (R) 47 (48)
Musgrove (D) 46 (43)
12 percent of African Americans remain undecided (for the presidential question as well, suggesting that these individuals didn't feel comfortable talking to a pollster -- evidence of the "reverse Bradley" effect that undercounted Obama's support in the polls in Southern states during the primary). Those black "undecided" voters should be worth another two points for Musgrove. So the rest of the margin will need to come from either white voters, or increased turnout among African Americans.
This poll assumes that African Americans will make up 37 percent of the vote. In 2004, exit polls pegged the black vote at 34 percent, so Research 2000 is already assuming heightened African American turnout. And interest in the election in Mississippi is certainly at record levels.
In the presidential, McCain leads Obama 50-40. DavidNYC wrote a piece back in May looking at what it would take to win Mississippi. Bottom line? 40 percent of African American turnout and 20 percent of the white vote to Obama.
We won't know what black turnout will look like until election day, but as for white support, Obama is just at 15 percent. Amazingly, that's more than Kerry got in 2004 -- 14 percent. So it's not necessarily a reaction to Obama being black. It's a reaction to him being a Democrat.
Musgrove is in better shape because he's garnering 24 percent of the white vote. It'll be a tough state for Democrats as long as they're unable to make inroads with white voters in the poorest state in the union.
Update:
Ronnie Musgrove for Senate
MISSISSIPPI POLL RESULTS – OCTOBER 2008
The Research 2000 Mississippi Poll was conducted from October 14 through October 15, 2008. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.
Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.
SAMPLE FIGURES:
Men 285 (49%)
Women 315 (51%)
Democrats 242 (40%)
Republicans 268 (45%)
Independents/Other 90 (15%)
18-29 108 (18%)
30-44 181 (31%)
45-59 194 (32%)
60+ 117 (19%)
White 372 (62%)
Black 221 (37%)
Other 7 (1%)
Delta/Jackson 223 (37%)
Northeast 159 (27%)
Southeast 218 (36%)
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Ronnie Musgrove? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 18% 34% 31% 12% 5%
FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 52% 43% 5%
MEN 49% 48% 3%
WOMEN 55% 38% 7%
DEMOCRATS 76% 19% 5%
REPUBLICANS 31% 67% 2%
INDEPENDENTS 52% 35% 13%
18-29 58% 36% 6%
30-44 55% 42% 3%
45-59 48% 46% 6%
60+ 47% 48% 5%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Roger Wicker? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 19% 34% 30% 13% 4%
FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 54% 42% 4%
MEN 57% 40% 3%
WOMEN 51% 44% 5%
DEMOCRATS 28% 67% 5%
REPUBLICANS 79% 18% 3%
INDEPENDENTS 50% 45% 5%
18-29 48% 49% 3%
30-44 52% 43% 5%
45-59 57% 38% 5%
60+ 58% 39% 3%
QUESTION: If the election for U.S. Senate were held today would you vote for Ronnie Musgrove or Roger Wicker?
WICKER MUSGROVE UNDECIDED
ALL 47% 46% 7%
MEN 51% 42% 7%
WOMEN 43% 50% 7%
DEMOCRATS 6% 88% 6%
REPUBLICANS 85% 7% 8%
INDEPENDENTS 45% 49% 6%
WHITE 72% 24% 4%
BLACK 5% 83% 12%
18-29 40% 52% 8%
30-44 48% 47% 5%
45-59 51% 43% 6%
60+ 49% 41% 10%
DELTA/JACKSON 40% 55% 5%
NORTHEAST 52% 40% 8%
SOUTHEAST 51% 42% 7%
QUESTION: If the election for President were held today would you vote for the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin or another candidate?
MCCAIN OBAMA OTHER UNDECIDED
ALL 50% 40% 3% 7%
MEN 53% 38% 4% 5%
WOMEN 47% 42% 2% 9%
DEMOCRATS 10% 80% 2% 8%
REPUBLICANS 87% 4% 3% 6%
OTHER 48% 41% 4% 7%
WHITE 78% 15% 3% 4%
BLACK 4% 82% 2% 12%
18-29 44% 46% 3% 7%
30-44 53% 37% 4% 6%
45-59 51% 40% 4% 5%
60+ 53% 36% 1% 10%
DELTA/JACKSON 43% 49% 1% 7%
NORTHEAST 55% 35% 5% 5%
SOUTHEAST 54% 36% 3% 7%