As of early October, 29% of registered voters where African-American. As of Wednesday 540K people had already voted in Georgia. That is close to 10% of the total registered voters in GA (5,6 mill).
I didn`t find any recent Diary about this, but I think it is interesting to look at GA because many think it is a safe state for McCain, I think Obama will win it!
Turnout in 04 was close to 65% as far as I can see. It is very likely that turnout will be higher this year, probably driven by African-Americans and younger voters. I think a 70% turnout is likely.
White voters had a higher turnout in 04 compared to AA, I think it is very likely that turnout among AA will be higher than whites this year, because of enthusiasm.
If we look at registered voters, there are close to 1,63 mill registered AA in GA in September 08, that number was 1,37 in November 04. There are 3,55 mill white voters compared 3,387 mill white voters in 04. There are close to 140K Asian, Hispanics and Indian in 08 compared to 69K in 04. There are 264K others compared to 135K others.
That means we have 29,2% AA, 63,5% W and 2,5% AHI (Asian, Hispanics and Indian) and 4,7% O in 08. In 04 we had: 27.7% AA, 68% W, 1,3% AHI and 2,7% O. Thats a huge change...
It is difficult to predict the turnout among ethnic groups but early voting indicates a strong turnout among AA, of those 540K who had voted early as of Wednesday, 37% where AA. That number will probably go down after the election, but it could be higher than 30% if turnout among registered AA is higher than other groups. 37% of 540K is 200K. Thats 12-13% of registered AA... I think we can expect a massive AA turnout, probably as high as 75% or even higher, that could actually help Obama win GA if his support is good among AHI and Others as well.
SurveyUSA had a recent poll where Obama trailed by 8 points, they had AA at 26%, thats higher than 04 when it was at 25,4% but at that point only 27,7% of voters where AA and Obama was not on the ballot...
SUSA has W turnout at 67% thats probably higher than reality, Hispanics and others at 7% thats probably in line with reality.
R2000/Dkos had Obama 6 points behind but even they had AA turnout only at 27%, W 66%, H at 5% and O at 2%. I still think AA at 27% is way to low and 66% W is to high (remember only 63,5% of registered voters are W).
I can`t find the crosstabs from other pollsters, Insider Advantage have the race tighter (McCain up by 3%).
Both R2000 and SUSA have Obama getting around 25% of W votes, Kerry got 24% in 04. Both have him around 90% with AA and around 60% with others.
Lets assume 3 scenarios.
- Turnout is a bit higher among W as in 04. Lets say 70% and 65% with AA and O. That would give:
67% W
26,5% AA
6,5% O
Using the numbers Obama and McCain gets in R2000 and SUSA`s poll, we would have:
O 44,6 M 51,5 and Barr+others close to 4 points. McCain wins by 7% which is the average margin of R2000 and SUSA.
- Turnout the same among all ethnic groups, lets say 70%.
63,5% W
29,2% AA
7,2% O
That would give:
O 46,5 M 49,5
Thats 3%, similar to the margin Insider Advantage have.
- This is the scenario I find more likely, higher turnout among AA compared to W and O. Lets say 75% with AA, 70% W and O.
62,2% W
30,7% AA
7% O
That would give:
O 47,33 M 48,7%
Margin down to 1,5%.
I think the last scenario is most likely and I believe AA turnout could be even higher than 30,7. I have also given McCain 10% of AA votes, which is probably a bit higher than what he will get. If Obama gets closer to 95% of AA votes and stays at 25% with whites, he will win scenario 3 and scenario 2 will be a extremely close.
I actually think 75% turnout among AA is a conservative estimate and I believe it could be closer to 80%, early voting in several states including NC and GA indicates a MASSIVE turnout among AA. I think Obama will win GA if AA vote as I expect and Obama gets close to 25% of the white votes. Most Recent poll show McCain with a single digit margin between 5-8%, those polls use "history" as an indicator of turnout, they estimate a higher turnout among W compared to AA which I find extremely unlikely.
Obama got 887 391 votes in the primary, 338 460 of those where from white voters if we use CNN Exit poll. If turnout among white voters is close to 70% it means 2,485 mill voters would be "white", 25% of that is 620 K voters. 570K white voters voted for Hillary Clinton, Obama needs all of his 338+282 of white Hillary voters to get 25% of W vote if turnout is 70%, that would actually be less than 50% of the white voters who voted for Hillary in the primary, so I think 25% of W voters is very likely.
http://sos.georgia.gov/...