If you are wondering whether or not your contributions to No on Prop 8 in California can make a difference, or if we can win at all, keep reading.
The short answer is yes, you can make a difference, we can win and I'm going to show you the data that says so.
The Background
I'd always been following the No on Prop 8 effort at a distance. I had heard that the early polling numbers were strongly in our favor and frankly, I wasn’t worried. The July Poll showed 38-55 and the September poll was 42-51. The "No" votes were greater than 50% and the trend was growing.
About 2 weeks ago, I heard some noise about things not going so well. I looked more closely and found, to my horror, that the polls where now showing 47-43. That’s 47% in favor of banning the same sex marriage rights that the California courts had ruled constitutional! What happened?
On September 29, the supporters of Prop 8 (not our friends) released their first ad against us. This was powerful ad showing Gavin Newsom quoted in a very unfortunate situation. While speaking to our friends after the decision in support of gay marriage, says "It's going to happen! Like it or Not!".
Go check out the at at:
http://www.youtube.com/...
This ad has been devastating to us. No one likes to be told what do to or what they "must" accept. Not surprisingly this has provoked a backlash.
When I began to look at our ads to see what we had to compete, I'll admit I was discouraged. Ads like the Thorons:
http://www.youtube.com/...
Seemed ineffective against the Newsom ad. I thought we were dead meat. I jumped to a conclusion that I am sure many have, which is that the messaging was not going to work. Many folks, including myself had a sense that contributing to the effort was not going to help, because, frankly, we didn’t have a good response.
However, the messaging at the time was targeted at a different demographic than the Newsom ad has been swaying against us. The occurrence of the Newsom ad has changed the messaging game. Most importantly, the campaign has adjusted to this game changing ad and adapted their message in to respond. Our new ads take a significantly different approach to address this demographic and go on the attack to dispute the lies and mischaracterizations of our opponents.
The Data
Reading my post here telling you my opinion is only going to go so far. I've collected the polling data over time and laid that out against the TV ad releases to show the effectiveness of the ads. Lets have a look at the overall big picture:
What you see here is the polling data from July 18, September 18, October 6 and October 18. We can see that up until the Newsom ad arrived, we were doing well. Our existing ads were doing their job. However, after the Newsom ad, things went downhill fast. Our existing ads were no longer effective. Things continued to slide resulting in a reversal in the polls. The new numbers were against us. The shock of Gavin Newsom's words, our ally's words, used so cleverly against us was shocking. The Thorons could not save us. Gloom sets in.
Since that time, two new ads, "Lies" and "Unfair" have been created and run on TV. If you haven't, please view them here:
Lies: http://www.youtube.com/...
Unfair: http://www.youtube.com/...
Since they have been running, the recent poll data shows that they are effective. Our downward slide has stopped and we are now growing in our support in the polls.
Yes, the other side is growing too. However, we are growing faster. You can see, if you look closely, based on the latest data from 10/16 that our trend upward is steeper than theirs. That’s great news.
What this means is that our ads are working. The data shows it. Obviously no one can guarantee anything and polls can be wrong. However, this data should bring us optimism that this battle is winnable. Now it’s the final sprint and we need to continue to promote this messaging which is working and ensure that we can air our commercials as many times as possible!
The Campaign Evolves
They say that a war plan is obsolete the moment you engage the enemy. This is true. The best indicator I look for in determining my confidence in an effort is their ability to evolve.
In addition to the TV ad initiative, there are other things the campaign has done recently which are very smart and good reasons to invest your hard earned cash. The website has been revamped to allow videos, news and other important information to be posted quickly. Information is now much easier to find than before. They've included links to supporting videos from the community. In addition to TV there are viral web ads that will help change minds and encourage contribution. See these viral ads, especially the Hollywood created "Mac vs PC" parody ads at their YouTube Page:
http://www.youtube.com/...
(FAQ: What about running the Hollywood "Mac vs PC" parody ads on TV? I asked the campaign this question. The answer is that this has been researched and tested. Unfortunately, while very popular with supporters and potential contributors, these ads don't perform as well with the undecided voter demographic we need to influence. It also does not seem play well with Microsoft employees.)
They are reaching out and working with the LGBT blogosphere to get the message out in ways they were not before.
One thing that can't be denied is that the campaign, which only really got going this summer, is listening to the feedback they are getting, they are doing the hard work to research the data and adjust their strategy as the situation continues to evolve. So, if you had concerns about the effectiveness of the campaign, I encourage you to look closely at the changes that are happening and the data that shows that the level of effectiveness continues to improve.
What you can do
Right now, until Sunday 10/19 at Midnight, every dollar given is going to be matched by philanthropist Steve Bing. That means that your contribution will have twice the impact.
If you weren't sure that your contribution was going to make a difference, here is how it will. Each airing of our ads costs $500. Think about this, with Steve Bing's generous matching effort, every $250 raised here turns into $500 dollars.
Even if you can't give $250, the math still works. If you give $50, and 4 friends do the same then you've caused an airing. Of course, if you are able to give $250 on your own, then you have your very own airing. The point is, that you can have a concrete idea of what your contribution is doing and every $250 means an airing which the data shows is effective. You personally cause an opportunity to have minds educated and more folks saying NO to bigotry and NO to discrimination and YES to equality!
I know it’s a tough time in the economy. We can win and you can make a difference! It's now a close race and its going to come down to the wire. WE NEED YOUR HELP!
Please contribute at:
http://www.actblue.com/...
Scroll down to the entry for "Equality for All" and click Donate!
All donations are matched until midnight Sunday the 19th, so act now!