I am among those who was not so impressed by Obama's performance in last week's debate. I thought he was right on the issues but not forceful enough, quietly saying "that's not true" when he could have looked right at McCain and said "John, stop lying to the American people!".
And of course, I was wrong wrong wrong. It seems that Obama hit all the right notes (and McCain all the wrong ones) for undecided voters who were actually in a position to have their minds changed by the debate.
I'm trying to understand how I (and I gather a fair number of pundits) got it so wrong, and whether there are any lessons that will be useful tonight.
My hypothesis, for the moment, is that undecided voters pay some attention to substance but are ultimately won by whom they like more.
People seem to have been put off by McCain's negativity, failure to make eye contact, etc., and seem to have been put at ease by Obama's even keel (one of my own favorite things about him -- I get a kick out of the occasional attack, but I love the fact that his strongest attacks are laced with gentle humor rather than bitterness).
Prior to this election, the presidential debates that I remember most vividly were in 2000. Gore was so absolutely correct on every single point, and Bush was so completely wrong -- but the withering looks Gore gave Bush (however well-deserved) wound up being decisive. I suspect people on the fence might have felt like they, along with Bush (who didn't sound so foolish to them), were the recipients of that disdain (and maybe they were).
(How can anyone debate Sarah Palin without rolling his/her eyes? Is it even advisable to hold back in the face of such a pitiful grasp of issues? I honestly have no idea.)
I think the tack suggested by this diary (http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/10/2/11243/0554/679/617659) -- attack McCain, not Palin -- is probably on the right track. And I realize that Biden is better than Obama at attacking per se. But I wonder whether even attacks on McCain should be kept at a minimum in favor of conveying positivity, affability and calm -- with perhaps the occasional gentle point toward the current mess and the fact that W (and the Republican candidate who has voted with him 90% of the time) own it lock, stock and barrel.