Is this the fabled 'breaking of the election' which happens early to mid October in some races ala 1980?
Mark Ambinder writes...
ObamaPollSplosion: He Breaks 50 Everywhere
The same Democrats who three weeks ago were chanting to themselves "polls reflect the daily news, polls reflect the daily news" are now enthusing about a blitz of state polls showing Barack Obama up everywhere, above 50 percent everywhere and even nationally.
I'm getting lots of e-mails speculating about the 2012 frontrunner for Republicans. (I think it's Huckabee, but that's for tomorrow.)
The trend lines are positive for Obama, and, of course, one would expect Democrats to cheer the good news. (McCain's doing fine in..Oklahoma.)
Michael Scherer over at time continues
I don't know what to call it. Or if it will last. But the polls are definitely moving. (Disclaimer: The race is by no means over. Polling five weeks out is never a sure predictor of final results.) It is, however, newsworthy that Obama is breaking 50 percent all over the place. As Peter Brown of Quinnipiac said this morning in a press release, "Sen. John McCain has his work cut out for him if he is to win the presidency. There does not appear to be a role model for such a comeback in the last half century."
Here are the stats..
First today we have Quinnipiac (Sept. 27 to 29; error +/- 3.4 percent) which puts:
--Obama up 8 points in Florida, 51 to 43
--Obama up 8 points in Ohio, 50 to 42
--Obama up 14 points in Pennsylvania, 54 to 39
McCain dismissed these polls as "laughable." The Obama campaign said they were "a bit rosier than reality."
Next we have today the new TIME/CNN (Sept. 28 to 30; error +/- 3.5 to 4 percent):
--Obama up by 4 points in Florida, 51 to 47
--Obama up by 11 points in Minnesota, 54 to 43
--Obama up by 1 point in Missouri, 49 to 48
--Obama up by 4 points in Nevada, 51 to 47
--Obama up by 9 points in Virginia, 53 to 44
If Bob Barr, Ralph Nader and Cynthia McKinney are included in the question the spreads get slightly larger, favoring Obama more.
On top of that BOB SCHIEFFER of CBS said last night, after the debates the race gets cemented.
Is this the 'break'?! - I know it will be tested as Rev. Wright and Rezko come out of the woodwork, but has the reached and passed the threshold?