The highly respected Pew Research Center for the People & the Press today released an astonishing poll showing a 14% Obama lead over McCain. The was done Oct. 16-19 with a national sample of 2,599 registered voters.
Pew Poll: Obama's Lead Widens
Among all registered voters, the margin was 52-38%, among "likely voters" the margin remains the same: 53-39%.
This lead is double from a week ago (Oct 9-12), when Pew showed a 7% lead (49%-42%) for Obama among likely voters - compared to an end of September 49%-43%, and a mid September poll tied at 46%.
But the real good news goes much deeper than the race horse numbers - the poll shows fundamental strength for Obama on virtually every issue and attribute, and underlying problems for McCain on multiple fronts.
Independent voters in the poll are backing Obama by a huge 51-33% margin, a dramatic reversal of the McCain 45%-38% margin in mid-September.
The poll also reports that Obama and McCain are tied among white voters at 45% each, compared to a 14 point McCain advantage (52%-38%) a month ago.
Obama is now leading or tied among all age groups, including a 66%-27% lead among <30 voters, 52%-39% among 30-49 year olds, 50%-42% among the 50-64 group, and even tied at 44% among those over 65.</p>
In 15 states (CO, FL, IN, IA, MI, MN, MO, NH, NM, NC, OH, PA, VA , WI) that Pew defines as "battleground states, Obama posts an impressive 52%-37% lead (up from 48-41% just a week ago).
Among all voters, Obama has a 68%-29% favourable rating (a net 13% gain from a month ago), while McCain has slipped to 54%-42%, a net 17% loss from 63%-34% a month ago.
On the critical question of judgement, 41% of voters said McCain has "poor judgement", compared to 29% saying the same about Obama.
McCain's reputation as a negative campaigner has grown - 56% now say that McCain has been "too personally critical" (compared to 48% a week ago, and 42% a month ago). Only 26% say the same things about Obama. When asked to "grade" the candidates' campaigns, 65% of voters gave Obama an A or B, while only 34% gave McCain those same grades.
Sarah Palin is viewed unfavourably by a 49% to 44% margin. A month ago, only 32% viewed her unfavourably, compared to 54% favourablity - an incredible net 27% swing in a month. In an ultimate measure of campaign backfire, women have a 54% unfavourable view of Palin, compared to 34% a month ago.
On issues, Obama leads McCain on the question of who can best handle the economy 53%-32% (up from 47% - 38% a month ago at the onset of the crisis), while even on Iraq Obama now leads 48% to 42%, a virtual reversal from a McCain 48%-41% lead a month ago.
In one measure of enthusiasm, Obama holds a huge lead among early voters in the poll. Fully 31% of the voters said they have already voted or plan to vote before election day (compared with 19% four years ago). Of those voters, Obama leads 58% to 34%.
And in a final insult to McCain, Pew reports that view that McCain is too old to be president has risen to 34% (from 23% a month ago). They point out that at this is higher than the 32% who said the same thing Bob Dole at this point in 1996. Not a good omen for John McCain.
These are just some of the highlights of the poll, all good news for us. You can find plenty of more details on issues, demographics etc at the Pew website: Pew October 21st survey report
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Update: Wanted to acknowledge that there was a previous diary by Paleo on the Pew poll that went up about 10 minutes before mine. If it is okay for folks, I'm going to keep this up since I've included a lot of the poll internals and details and figure those are worth looking at.