Al Giordano has a very interesting essay on The Field today that I haven't seen discussed.
The Panic Room: What's With McCain's Pennsylvania Gambit?
He basically tries to answer the question, why is McCain pulling out of Colorado (Obama +5 at RCP) and doubling down in Pennsylvania (Obama +11). Al Giordano's answer is Rev. Wright.
His prediction:
Basically, McCain will try to relive the April 22 Democratic Primary in Pennsylvania: a reappearance by Rev. Wright and Obama's "bitter" comments in paid TV ads combined with a tightening of poll numbers
And McCain is ignoring CO because there is no evidence that his final gambit will have any sway in the western states.
And if they're really going to go there - to try to make the campaign about race and, specifically, some white people's fears of pigmentation - then it would make total sense for McCain to temporarily ignore Colorado, where that message ain't gonna hunt, and shift focus to Appalachia and the South: Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio and, yes, Pennsylvania and even Florida being the swing states where racially charged politics have sometimes, in the past, worked for the Republicans, or, in Appalachia, where they worked for the Clintons during the primaries.
Giordano also argues that because Obama numbers are high in Pennsylvania, there is room for tightening, and the combination of heavy campaigning by McCain and Palin, plus Rev Wright ads, plus tightening polls would drive the next news cycle which could 'galvanize morale among his troops nationwide.'
His conclusion, however, is that this is still our election to lose.
That narrative depends on your panic and the reappearance of Chicken Little-ism on the Obama side of the barricades, and on his troops taking the election for granted and not redoubling efforts for the final push, particularly in Pennsylvania, Virginia, North Carolina, Missouri, Ohio, Florida, Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Indiana, and, yes, even in Minnesota, Wisconsin, New Hampshire and Maine's Second CD.
In other words, the gambit may get some media traction, but it can't work unless it instills panic and anger (over the heightened racial arson to be attempted) in Obama's supporters in a way that knocks the field organization off it's game. It can only work if you fall for it and become its unwitting dupe and participant.
So let's not fall for it. I've lined up my babysitter for GOTV phonebanking on Nov 4th. How about you?