GoBama! We're heading into the home stretch.
The Democracy Corps put out a particularly useful opinion research memo today. They looked at the profile of undecided voters in battleground states and the profile of first time voters likely to go for Obama.
Democracy Corps Analysis
The keys to election day may come from retaining potentially 'erodable' voters and turning out new voters who support Obama.
New Obama voters are more likely to be:
• 18 to 29 years old (39 percent compared to 12 percent overall)
• Young Non College (33 percent compared to 19 percent overall)
• Democrats (66 percent compared to 38 percent overall)
• Democratic Women (40 percent compared to 23 percent overall)
• Liberal (34 percent compared to 18 percent overall)
• Non frequent churchgoers (40 percent compared to 25 percent overall)
• African Americans (17 percent compared to 9 percent overall)
• Hispanic (14 percent compared to 6 percent overall)
Undecided voters are more likely to be:
• Women (60 percent compared to 53 percent overall)
• Older Women (34 percent compared to 28 percent overall)
• White Non-College Women (33 percent compared to 25 percent overall)
• Older Non-College Women (24 percent compared to 19 percent overall)
• White Married Women (34 percent compared to 28 percent overall)
• Independents (45 percent compared to 26 percent overall)
• Independent Women (27 percent compared to 11 percent overall)
• Moderates (47 percent compared to 39 percent overall)
These undecides often seem to still believe that McCain is stronger on foreign policy. (Kind of makes you wonder what rock they've been living under the past 8 years). But they are most persuadable on issue of fighting for American jobs and the economy, cutting middle class taxes, and improving health care.
Potentially 'winnable' voters for Obama
• White Non College Men (24 percent compared to 19 percent overall)
• Separated/Divorced (19 percent compared to 10 percent overall)
• Independents (58 percent compared to 26 percent overall)
• Moderates (55 percent compared to 39 percent overall)
• Moderate Republicans (22 percent compared to 14 percent overall)
Just as undecided voters, the greatest worries about Obama preventing this bloc from being consolidated and won over are mostly about whether Obama is too liberal and if he will raise taxes. But they are attracted to Obama because of his plan to cut middle class taxes (25 percent), and two-in-ten mention achieving energy independence as the main reason that could lead them to support Obama.
Voters who currently support Obama but have the potential for defecting, include:
• Seniors (26 percent compared to 21 percent overall)
• White High School education or less (35 percent compared to 23 percent overall)
• White Older Non College (32 percent compared to 25 percent overall)
• White Older Non College Men (16 percent compared to 9 percent overall)
• Moderate Democrats (59 percent compared to 31 percent overall)
• Catholics (26 percent compared to 21 percent overall)
Their study is based on 3 surveys among a total of 3,044 likely voters conducted from September 30 to October 14, 2008, in CO, IA, IN, FL, MI, MN, MO, MT, NC, NH, NM, NV, OH, PA, VA, WI.