Last night, everybody’s favorite election poll analyst, Dr. Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com downgraded the McCain campaign’s condition to critical and put the patient on life support. His analysis has McCain down to the death throes, with Indiana now moved over to the Obama side of the map (if just barely) and a double-digit lead for Obama in Pennsylvania confirmed by no less than five different surveys. There’s also evidence that Obama is expanding his lead in Florida and even has a lead in Montana in one poll. So over all, by Nate’s calculation, John McCain’s chances of winning this election has dwindled to 3.7%, down from 6.5% yesterday. Wow. Pretty slim odds. No wonder Papa John is pissed with Sarah; because he knows he's trapped now. No matter what he says, 55% of Americans still believe that his running mate is unqualified to be Vice President, let alone President, so they are not likely to switch their votes at this stage of the game, no matter what happens. So let the finger pointing begin.
I was just thinking about what Chuck Todd said Wednesday night on Countdown about the tension he felt between McCain and Palin on the set of their interview with Brian Williams; well I’ll tell you: I trust Chuck Todd’s instinct. That’s what NBC pays the guy for. I’m sure he read the signals right. Remember, he was there when the cameras were not rolling. That is when you sense the real tension on a set. There is no hiding it. Chuckie T even went so far as to say that it felt like somebody might have a Bulworth moment any minute now.
You know, come to think of it, I’ll bet McCain wasn't even aware of the $150,000 "Wardrobe for Candidate Barbie" debacle until way after the fact. I'd be willing to bet that's not going down too well with the old guy right about now. And Sarah’s mauling of the definition of the Vice President’s job to a third grader’s question probably didn't help matters any either. On top of that, there was all this bad polling news, which they had been briefed on, probably a few hours (or maybe just a few minutes beforehand.) Then there they were, ready for their major network interview with a guy who has been waiting for 55 days to tear their throats out. Hmmmmm. Interesting dynamic? You think there might have been a little tension on that set?
When the interview started, you could tell right away that Sarah was trying a little too hard. I mean, wasn't she overdoing it just a wee bit? She was sort of like the little girl in the third grade who sits in the front row and always has her hand up, and jumps up and down with her eyebrows raised... "Please, teacher, I know, I know. Let me answer, please, please!"
This will definitely be interesting to watch over the next 11 days. There is no doubt a sense among various observers that there is a growing divide within the campaign between the McCain insiders and some in the Palin entourage. I keep expecting some kind of fisticuffs between Todd Palin and John McCain or at least a good shouting match. I can hear the taunts now:
"You stop blaming her. You were going down the tubes before she came a long, old man!"
"Yeah? Well I wish I knew she didn’t know anything. Jesus Christ."
Hey wait a minute, You taking the name of our Lord and Savior, Jesus Christ in vain?
"And what if am, tough guy?"
"You’re a hypocrite, then"
"At least I don’t shoot baby seals out of helicopters."
"It’s Wolves! Not Seals. We shoot Wolves. We club Seals. How many times I gotta tell you? Are you senile?"
"Screw you and your stupid lipstick pig of a wife."
And then they will no doubt circle each other asking "Are you talking to me?" and "Yeah, what if I am?" until they are separated by the secret service (or Cindy and Sarah, whomever is available.)