Drudge, as usual, is trumpeting the one outlier poll that shows the race as a near dead-heat. To add to it, they are trumpeting it as the most accurate poll from the last election. I decided to take a look at the details they provide, because something seems fisht with it.
I did some ballparking, but don't have the software available to do the precise solving - follow me below
The most curious breakdown in their data is the responses based upon self described political philosophy of conservative, moderate, liberal.
According to the data provided, they show the results as: (Obama/McCain/Undecided)
Conservative: 21/69/10
Moderate: 57/29/14
Liberal: 87/7/6
Their overall result for the poll is Obama 44.8, McCain 43.7
It seems inplausible to me that the results could come out that way with the weightings above. Obama has a huge lead among liberals and moderates, yet the overall results are nearly even. The only way this is possible is if there is an extreme weighting towards conservative.
If somebody has the software do do the math, the equations to solve this are:
43.7 = 69x+29y+7z
44.8 = 21x+57y+87z
11.5 = 10x+14y+6z
x+y+z=100
Using trial and error, a breakdown of 41% conservative, 51% moderate, and 8% liberal gets you in the ballpark.
Does this not seem like an absurd picture of the likely electorate?
If you solve for x/y/z, that gives you the breakdown of people surveyed in the poll.