On my daily read of Fivethirtyeight.com I noticed that an astounding number of Nate's projections — 16% — were coming in at 375 electoral votes. Yesterday it was closer to 20.
Then I started poking around (the non-MSM that is)
Electoral Vote: 375
Real Clear Politics: 375
Intrade state-by-state: 375
Pollster (states ahead): 378 (only because they have Obama up in N.D.)
Election projection: 364 (dropping an 11-EV state, either MO or IN)
This is actually a lot of agreement; same data, different methodologies, similar results.
So how does it stack up:
Let's start with a base of 375 EVs:
CA CO CT DC DE FL HI IL IN IA ME MD MA MI MN MO NV NH NJ NM NY NC OH OR PA RI VT VA WA WI
Yup, that sounds about right.
To get 378 you have to add three EVs, either from Montana or North Dakota. Both are just about 50-50 on intrade but 6-1 favorites for McCain on 538. So 378 (one of them going to the dems) is a lot more plausible than both. 378 might also come up if you drop one of the 11 EV states (Missouri and Indiana, see below) and pick up one of these and West Virginia for a net gain of 3. That's really only likely because West Virginia, Indiana/Missouri and Montana/North Dakota are in disparate regions which may move independently of one another.
To get 376 you add one of Nebraska's districts
364 comes up a lot because two of the swingiest swingers are 11-EV states: Missouri and Indiana. Both Intrade and 538 (the two sites with some sort of percentages by state) show them in the 60-40 range. So it's likely that one would drop from the Dem's column. Dropping both (to 353) is plausible, too.
Now one of Nate's top five is 286 (way too close for comfort for me). But this seems like an absolutely worst-case scenario. It means removing FL IN MO NV NC OH from Obama's column. These are the only states on 538 which McCain is currently losing but has a better-than 7% chance of winning. And Obama would have to lose all of these, plus 18 more votes (remember, he wins a tie), meaning he has the luxury of losing all of these states as well as one or more of CO NH NM VA and still winning. (These states are all 93-7 or 94-6, and every other state in Obama's column is 99-1 or better. Seriously.) Obama could lose CO, NH, and NM and tie, VA and NM and tie, VA and NH and win by one, and any other combination of these states other than all four or CO and VA and win. The path to victory is pretty easy.
Intrade seems to have about twice the chances for McCain at both a state-by-state level and nationally, probably because it is either being a) manipulated or (more likely) b) enough Republicans are voting their feelings with their dollars to skew it some.
I do like how Nate, a long time ago, defined 375 as a "blowout." I wonder if he had this in mind.
Don't stop thinking about tomorrow, but tomorrow looks bright!