First of all, I must give credit where credit is due. Most of the statistics found in this diary come directly from this excellent George Mason University website put together by Political Science Professor Michael McDonald. If you don't have this website on your favorites list, you should probably bookmark it ASAP! Unless I cite another source specifically, you can assume that I retrieved the statistic referred to directly from this website. According to this website, early voting is going splendidly in North Carolina, Georgia, Iowa, Nevada, and New Mexico. However, things may be a little tighter than we would like in Colorado and Florida among early voters. The other states that have early voting haven't provided enough information on the partisan or demographic breakdowns of their early voters to really get a feel for how things are going.
More below the fold . . .
First, I'll report the good news. In North Carolina 55.2% of the over one million early voters who have already cast their ballots are registered Democrats. Only 27.8% of all early voters are registered Republicans. This ratio constitutes almost a 2 to 1 advantage for us, and it is a significant improvement from 2004 when we held a 48.6% to 37.4% advantage among registered voters. If these statistics hold through election day, we'll probably win North Carolina, but it's still probably going to be close considering the fact that we lost North Carolina by double digits in 2004 despite holding a double digit advantage in partisan ID. Now is not the time to get complacent!
In Georgia nearly 1 million people have voted. Of these early voters, 35.4% are African Americans. In 2004, African Americans made up only 27.4% of the electorate in the state of Georgia according to Professor McDonal. This percentage of AA turnout has remained fairly steady throughout early voting, and the increase in AA from 2004 could result in Georgia being very close on election day. Of course Obama doesn't need to win the state of Georgia to win the White House, and if he does win Georgia then he will have won this election in a blowout.
In Iowa, over 300,000 people have already cast ballots, and among early voters registered Democrats represent 50.1% of the electorate compared to just 28.2% for the Republicans. According to CNN's exit poll, Republicans held a 36% to 34% advantage in partisan ID in 2004, and the state went for Bush by a mere 10,000 votes. So the bottom line is that Iowa is looking really good for Obama. I hope the McCain campaign keeps wasting time and money in this state!
In Nevada, there are partisan breakdowns for early voters in only two counties, but those two counties happen to account for about 85% of the electorate in the state. In 2004 Bush won Nevada by a mere 20,000 votes. Kerry and Bush split Nevada's two larges counties, Clark and Washoe. Kerry won Clark County (which includes Las Vegas) 52% to 47%, but he lost Washoe County 51% to 47%; and Bush won overwhelmingly in Carson City and rural Nevada. Bush's advantage in Washoe County and rural Nevada were enough to overtake Kerry's 26,000 vote lead in Clark County. However, this year, the early voting statistics suggest an even larger win for Obama in Clark County and an Obama win in Washoe County, which Kerry lost in 2004. In Clark County registered Democrats make up 56% of the early voters compared to only 27.9% for the Republicans. Similarly, in Washoe County, Democrats hold a 52.2% to 32.1% advantage. In 2004 Republicans held a 39% to 35% advantage in partisan ID according to CNN's exit poll.
There isn't as much information on early voting in New Mexico, but here is what we do know. In 2004 Bush won New Mexico by a mere 6,000 votes. In Bernadillo County (a suburb of Sante Fe), Kerry won, but only by 5 percentage points. According to CNN's exit poll the partisan breakdown among voters in New Mexico in the 2004 election was 40% Democrat, 33% Republican, and 27% Independent. Even the Bernadillo County went for Kerry, it was a close margin, and it is hard to imagine that the partisan breakdown in that County differed significantly from the rest of the state. But among early voters this year in Bernadillo County, Democrats hold a 55.2% to 32.7% advantage. This represents a significant improvement from the partisan breakdown in the 2004 election, and it bodes well for an Obama win the state. Nevertheless, now is not the time to get complacent.
Now for the not so good news. In Colorado, registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans by only 0.7% among early voters. Registered Democrats account for 38.6% of the early voters compared to 37.9% for Republicans. While this is a significant improvement from 2004 when Republicans made up 38% of the electorate compared to 29% for the Democrats according to CNN., it should be remembered that we also need to make up more ground in Colorado than we do in Iowa, New Mexico, and Nevada. Kerry lost Colorado by 5% in 2004. These early voting statistics suggest that Colorado may be a dead heat. So it is critical that we do everything we can to get out the vote in Colorado.
Florida's early voting statistics also show a very close race. Among the 1.6 million early voters in the Sunshine state, registered Democrats hold a 44.3% to 40.9% advantage over registered Republicans. Once again this compares favorably to the 2004 party ID breakdowns according to CNN's exit poll, which shows that 41% of the electorate in that election identified as Republicans compared to only 37% who identified as Democrats. Nevertheless, it is unclear as of yet whether this improvement is enough to put Florida in our column since we lost the state by 5% points and nearly 400,000 votes in 2004.
The bottom line is that the early voting statistics look good for Obama, but in at least a couple of crucial swing states, it still looks to be a very close election. We need to phone bank, canvass, talk to our neighbors, and do anything that we can to get out the vote for Obama between now and November 4. Let's do it!!!