Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 10/20-22. Likely voters. MoE 5% (10/6-8 results)
Shadegg (R) 50 (48)
Lord (D) 40 (39)
Shadegg has reached the magical 50 percent mark, which means victory unless Lord can eat into his base of support. Undecideds can break all they want to Lord, it doesn't help him. And when both Republican and Independent undecideds are breaking toward Shadegg (albeit by thin margins), it makes the task in a tough district all the tougher.
Part of the problem has been the fact that the Lord campaign was dark in the time between these polls, allowing the Shadegg campaign (and its allies) to dominate the airwaves (though the DCCC has been engaged).
On the plus side, McCain is underperforming Bush in 2004, winning 50-39 when Bush won it 58-41. Given recent polling showing Obama surging in the state, that could provide Lord with a boost. Also, while the sample size is small (9 percent of the overall sample), early voting numbers look great:
Shadegg (R) 44
Lord (D) 54
McCain 42
Obama 54
Finally, the likely voter sample is heavy on the R's. Massive Democratic voter registration gains in the district now peg the registration numbers at 43R-30D -- four points better than this poll's sample. Wishful thinking? Perhaps. But I'm still bullish on taking out the conservative movement's favorite House member. And I also want this big chunk of geography painted Blue:
On the web:
Bob Lord for Congress
Orange to Blue ActBlue Page
AZ-3 CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT POLL – OCTOBER 2008
This survey was conducted by Research 2000 of Rockville, Maryland. A total of 400 likely voters in the Third Congressional District were interviewed by telephone between October 20 and October 22, 2008.
Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the district. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by district.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 5% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.
SAMPLE FIGURES:
Men 198 (49%)
Women 202 (51%)
Democrats 117 (29%)
Republicans 181 (46%)
Independents/Other 102 (25%)
18-29 69 (17%)
30-44 126 (32%)
45-59 123 (30%)
60+ 82 (21%)
Voted 28 (7%)
Not Voted 372 (93%)
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of John Shadegg? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 13% 35% 32% 11% 9%
FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 48% 43% 9%
MEN 52% 41% 7%
WOMEN 44% 45% 11%
DEMOCRATS 28% 62% 10%
REPUBLICANS 70% 22% 8%
INDEPENDENTS 47% 44% 9%
18-29 45% 46% 9%
30-44 51% 40% 9%
45-59 46% 44% 10%
60+ 50% 42% 8%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Bob Lord? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 10% 35% 32% 9% 14%
FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 45% 41% 14%
MEN 42% 45% 13%
WOMEN 48% 37% 15%
DEMOCRATS 64% 20% 16%
REPUBLICANS 27% 64% 9%
INDEPENDENTS 44% 38% 18%
18-29 48% 38% 14%
30-44 43% 44% 13%
45-59 45% 40% 15%
60+ 44% 42% 14%
QUESTION: If the election for Congress were held today would you vote for Bob Lord the Democrat John Shadegg the Republican or Michael Shoen the Libertarian?
SHADEGG LORD OTHERS UNDECIDED
ALL 50% 40% 2% 8%
VOTED 44% 54% 2%
NOT VOTED 51% 39% 2%
MEN 53% 38% 2% 7%
WOMEN 47% 42% 2% 9%
DEMOCRATS 7% 88% 1% 4%
REPUBLICANS 81% 7% 2% 10%
OTHER 45% 44% 2% 9%
18-29 47% 43% 2% 8%
30-44 53% 37% 2% 8%
45-59 49% 42% 2% 7%
60+ 52% 39% 1% 8%
QUESTION: If the election for President were held today would you vote for the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin or another candidate?
MCCAIN OBAMA OTHER UNDECIDED
ALL 50% 41% 3% 6%
VOTED 42% 54% 4%
NOT VOTED 51% 40% 2%
MEN 52% 40% 4% 4%
WOMEN 48% 42% 2% 8%
DEMOCRATS 6% 89% 2% 3%
REPUBLICANS 81% 7% 3% 9%
OTHER 46% 45% 5% 4%
18-29 46% 45% 3% 6%
30-44 53% 38% 4% 5%
45-59 49% 42% 3% 6%
60+ 52% 39% 2% 7%