Here in north Georgia, persuadable Republicans that I meet are anxiously awaiting what they see as an inevitable national Obama/Biden win. Today's thoughtful analysis by Kos speculating about who will be the Howard Dean of the right provides a great preamble to what I believe is the most important question now facing this community- how will the new left lead, and what will be the role of Kossacks and their intellectual kin in a realigned American political reality?
Dear new colleagues, I share your angst born of years of "in your face" republican politics, which was perhaps most blatantly embodied in the "because we can" impeachment of Bill Clinton. That said, I am concerned about what happens in the event of an up and downticket blue sweep. How will an empowered new left govern?
I also share your anxiety about jinxing the situation- no question that there is a need to guard against Dewey (vs. Truman) arrogance.
I gently suggest that there is sufficient momentum to suggest that the probability (see the statistical analysis at http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/... of this outcome that we secretly fear/crave to believe in- the fear addressed by the Obama "believe" slogan- may indeed come to pass.
My "persuadable" Republican neighbors are also afraid. By persuadable, I refer to those who are not so deeply brainwashed by white supremacist and pentacostal ideology that they are effectively "lost to follow up".
These persuadable Republicans have very effectively assimilated tired and obsolete talking points and truisms which were the foundation of the "Reagan Revolution". Like Baptist biblical certainty, and the reassuring vision of a heaven where they will again meet their loved ones, these unquestioned foundation beliefs have allowed them to feel secure in a rapidly changing world. But now they can sense that the world as they know it is crashing down around them. What and who can they turn to? These are not intellectual right wing policy wonks. Most would not know who or what I was talking about if I mentioned David Brooks. Others have suggested the term "Rock Ridge Republicans" to describe this cohort http://www.youtube.com/... http://www.youtube.com/...
With my neighbors in mind, I am concerned about two risks which I believe are imminent.
The first is that a democratic sweep will create an environment ("mandate") where we risk development of overreaching payback. Not that it would not be justified!
The second is that the confederate battle flag-waving KKK types and extremist libertarian elements will feel trapped in their belief systems and justified in embarking on the pathway of domestic terrorism- black churches (as we have seen in the past), mosques (as we have recently seen already!), abortion clinics, federal buildings, public gatherings. Political assassination. Please do not forget the grassy knoll. All of us may become at increased risk for violence.
I have been extremely impressed with the forbearance of Barack Obama. He has truly walked the walk of "turn the other cheek". Personally, I believe that he knows that he has had no other choice- provision of any evidence which might be cited as supporting the "angry black man" meme would have been political suicide. But the man has brought amazing maturity, thoughtfulness, intellect, innovation and strategic insight to his management of this campaign- not even the conservative thought leaders can deny this essential truth. I ask (implore?) that you consider the example of his leadership.
Just as there is a pivot, a hinge, a transition between the reality of the environment of political primaries to the general election, there is also need to adjust strategy in the transition from election campaign to governance.
Kossacks, you have been at the forefront of some of the most important changes in American politics in the last twenty years. You are now confronted by the significant possibility of realizing many of your dreams. "Be careful of what you wish for, because you might get it".
I challenge you to keep "Rock Ridge Republicans" in your mind as you imagine a new future. And to remember both JFK and FDR (while being ever mindful of Newt, Karl, Ronnie, Rush and their "business practices"). The opportunity which you confront is to create a sustainable center left realignment. A mature twenty first century political consensus in which the US is brought into alignment with global norms for industrialized nation-states; healthcare, responsible environmental and energy policies, mature global political leadership that definitively rejects the Bush doctrine in favor of diplomacy backed by proportionate military (and economic) strength, and outreach to include all Americans who are committed to civil discourse.
A political alignment which can allow the United States to continue to serve as the beacon of progressive thought for the entire global community which is the true birthright bequested by those amazing white guys we call the "founding fathers" (how sexist!).
In the interests of "reaching across the aisle, I close this cautionary tale with two quotes
One from from H.L. Mencken-
"Under democracy one party always devotes its chief energies to trying to prove that the other party is unfit to rule - and both commonly succeed, and are right."
The other from Oliver Wendell Holmes-
"Taxes are the price we pay for civilization. "