The McCain campaign is definitely on the ropes. Eight days until election day, Obama maintains a nine point lead nationally. He is also ahead in eight of the twelve battleground states. In newpaper endorsements Obama leads almost 3:1, 207 to 73. Obama support among White voters is among the highest for any democrat since President Jimmy Carter and rising↑. The majority of the Womens vote. Solid Jewish, African American and Latino support. The Obama campaign appears to have more funds, a more organized ground game in the 50 states, and manpower. It appears that the Obama campaign is running on all 12 cylinders. This should be an indication of how an Obama administration will be run.
The avenues for a McCain victory are narrowing, but there appears to be a couple of ways for McCain to win:
- Continue voter suppression to decrease voter turnout.
- Continue challenging existing voter rolls by decrying voter registration fraud.
- Continuing to plant "seeds of doubt" about Obama's character, associations (tenuous at best) patriotism, tax policies, and cultural differences.
- Keeping the base energized by letting Sarah Palin attack Obama.
Even through this current strategy that appears to keep this race from becoming a blowout (currently), we have to remember what Charlie Black and Grover Norquist said about this race this summer. If a national security issue or foreign policy incident occurs this could drastically change the dynamics of this race. John Mueller has a great article on Terrorphobia. Currently McCain still leads in national security issues. This has been the republicans strong suit, especially after 9/11. They repeatedly make the democrats look soft on national security and foreign policy. Why is this when it is the republicans who were totally in charge during this terrible crisis? They have succeeded in turning a crisis into a strategy (and psychological condition) Terrornoia.
Terrornoia is similar to Terrorphobia but more related to paranoia. Terrornoia causes people to doubt each other, government and democracy. This clears the way for people to believe the talking points that "sounds loud, convincing, and aggressive, maternal or paternal". They expound their talking points with more conviction and persuasiveness than the democrats (until recently). This explains why republicans are so loud, overbearing, and agressive; the fearful and doubting mind needs direction. If you put people in a state of "Terrornoia" they will believe anything that's said forcefully. Do you think if the republicans were talking calmly about issues they would be effective, persuasive, and listened to? Hell no, not without "Terrornoia"!
Because of this look for more seeds of Terrornoia to be planted until election day. Even though we walk in the valley of fear, division, and Terrornoia, we don't worry because hope and the right side of history are with us.
Watch all this to disappear 2 weeks after the election, but the effects on the electorate will be residual for some time to come.