This is not intended to say we can relax on GOTV , or that voter suppression is not a truly disgusting and Un-American problem which must be stopped . All I'm doing here is playing with the numbers. Floowme over the jump.
In 2004, the Kerry/Edwards ticket needed 18 more electoral votes to win. Among the states they lost were FL, (27 Electoral votes) VA, (13 EV) NC (15 EV), IN (11 EV), GA (15 EV), WV (5 EV), IA (7 EV), MO (11 EV), NM (5 EV), CO (9 EV), NV (5 EV), AZ (10 EV) MT (3 EV), ND ( 3 EV) and possibly OH (20 EV).
We all know that story.
All of the above states are states Obama is competitive in, using Real Clear Politics ( a supposedly Conservative-leaning website) numbers. I happen to think WV, GA, AZ, ND and MT will only come into the Democratic column if there is a landslide. I also think there's a pretty good chance of that landslide happening. For now, let's take them out of play. Based on the Kerry numbers, if somehow McCain were to put all of his forces into PA and win the state, (which is highly unlikely) we would go from 252 EV to 231 with 270 as the magic number. 39 EV needed. Taking the "landslide states" away, there are 123 EV up for grabs. At the moment, Obama is leading in every single one of the non-landslide states, with margins ranging from 0.3 to 11.2. Let's look just at states where the RCP average has him up 6 points or more,- in other words , safely out of the margin of error. Right now that's Ohio, Colorado, Virginia, New Mexico and Iowa, or 54 EV. That's a win right there . But Brad , you say , Ohio's numbers were inflated by that Big Ten Battleground Poll Well, Without it and including Zogby he's still up by 5.3 %. (All of these numbers are from RCP averages.) So, without OH that's only 34 EV and a loss.
This assumes that the McCain Campaign has somehow turned into a juggernaut that will win NC, FL, IN, MO, and NV plus the aforementioned PA and OH. In other words , Obama could lose PA, OH, IN, and FL and STILL win the election with the rest of the Kerry map, IA, CO, VA, NM and one of MO, NV and NC. That's as bad as I see it getting. Holding the Kerry states would mean VA and ANY OTHER non-landslide contested state is a win. Not a mandate- just 270 EV.
So then:
There are three things to worry about
- Low turnout (which I very much doubt if the early voting is any indication)
- The largest coordination of voter suppression tactics, in both Democratic and Republican-held states, that this country has ever seen while scads of folks ranging from the MSM to progressive groups and even some fair-minded conservatives are looking for any indication that such as thing is happening.
- The " Bradley Effect" wherein white voters say the will vote for a black candidate and don't due to deep-seated racial prejudices. First of all, Barack won some of the whitest states in the nation by impressively large margins on his way to the nomination. Secondly, because of the historic nature of the election, there is talk of a "reverse Bradley Effect." Finally, (and this comes from fivethirtyeight) the pollster who gave us the "Bradley Effect" through his incorrect polls leading up to the Gubernatorial election in California which Tom Bradley lost, he says there is no such thing as the " Bradley Effect." Rather, he says that polling was a much less exact science back then and his were simply bad polls.
- MCain will make a miraculous comeback. Possible but doubtful.
Don't break out the champagne yet - keep working and Getting OTV - but know that we are almost there - that they are down by 20 with 4 minutes to go in the 4th quarter, and John McCain has given no indication he is the Knicks of Bradley, Lucas and Reed.
Finally - a good omen for those who believe in such things. The last true landslide/ map and direction of the country-altering election came in 1980, when Reagan beat Carter. The Philadelphia Phillies won their only World Series Championship that year. Now they are one game away from winning their second. Just saying.