Heh.
Front-paged at Redstate. Let's tear them apart, shall we?
#1. Backlash against the media, which
has become a feminized, electronic vote-for-Obama nagging machine.
Let's leave aside the gratuitous adjectives and simply look at the polls:
The best evidence of stability in the race comes from four new surveys in Florida, four in Missouri, two in Ohio and five in Virginia that collectively leave the margins in each state within a few decimal points of where it was yesterday. Needless to say, the McCain campaign has little hope without a significant narrowing this week in states like Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico and Ohio.
Contrary to what the "Republican strategist" thinks, the media's real problem right now is trying NOT to point out the obvious.
#2. Gallup "predicted" the winner. Talk about cherry-picking! Here's the argument:
The Gallup poll after Labor Day has historically been a predictor of the winner of the Presidential election. The person leading in that poll wins the Presidency. The Republican convention, pushed onto Labor Day by the Summer Olympics muddied the waters on this historic fact, but the Gallup poll a week later showed McCain ahead of Obama, predicting the McCain victory.
What's missing here? Only the fact that the candidate in the lead in the first Gallup poll after Labor Day was Barack Obama. In fact, in that poll Obama cracked the 50% barrier for the first time.
#3. The "predictor" states. Six of them have been right every time since 1972. The obvious answer: Fewer will be able to say so after 2008. I mean, really. The whole idea that any locale is magically prescient in picking winners is absurd; and here we're talking about nine elections. In addition, Arkansas and Louisiana make the list by virtue of Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter. Sooner or later a non-Southern Democrat is bound to win the Presidency, and McCain has done more to break up the GOP's southern hegemony than any candidate since George Wallace in... 1972.
#4. Jewish voters are leaving Obama. I guess the diarist is cherry-picking Gallup again:
Jewish voters nationwide have grown increasingly comfortable with voting for Barack Obama for president since the Illinois senator secured the Democratic nomination in June. They now favor Obama over John McCain by more than 3 to 1, 74% to 22%.
Of course, that's from October 23rd. No doubt it's changed substantially in the last five days or so :-)
#5. Women will vote against Obama and the youth won't bother. To the contrary, high early voting totals likely mean that youth are voting, and as for women... let's use Gallup again. A 54/39 Obama/McCain split among women two weeks before the election doesn't look promising for this argument.
#6. The world is too unstable to elect Barack Obama. A "mid-west hairdresser" told the diarist so -- again, in the face of all polls that showed Obama surging as the economy faltered and McCain played news-cycle bingo with his campaign.
#7. Ah, of course. The Bradley effect. Not that there's any actual evidence that it ever existed, let alone that it will occur now.
The comments at Redstate enthusiastically support this drivel, which I find sad. Once upon a time, Redstate was the conservative analog to DailyKos, and usually a pretty good read, even considering its slant. Articles like this being promoted to the front page -- well, what can I say? Perhaps some years in the wilderness are in order.