You know you're hooked on politics when an election in 7 days isn't enough to keep you sated with politics news. I've started thinking about what races might get interesting in 2010. To start, I've gone to Wikipedia's excellent section on how senate elections are staggered, and who'll be up in 2010:
According to that chart, here are the senators who will be up for reelection then (organized alphabetically by state):
Richard Shelby (R-AL)
Lisa Murkowski (R-AK)
John McCain (R-AZ)
Blanche Lincoln (D-AR)
Barbara Boxer (D-CA)
Ken Salazar (D-CO)
Chris Dodd (D-CT)
Mel Martinez (R-FL)
Johnny Isakson (R-GA)
Daniel Inouye (D-HI)
Mike Crapo (R-ID)
Barack Obama (D-IL)
Evan Bayh (D-IN)
Chuck Grassley (R-IA)
Sam Brownback (R-KS)
Jim Bunning (R-KY)
David Vitter (R-LA)
Barbara Mikulski (D-MD)
Kit Bond (R-MO)
Richard Burr (R-NC)
Byron Dorgan (D-ND)
Harry Reid (D-NV)
Chuck Schumer (D-NY)
George Voinovich (R-OH)
Tom Coburn (R-OK)
Ron Wyden (D-OR)
Arlen Specter (R-PA)
Jim DeMint (R-SC)
Robert Bennett (R-UT)
Patrick Leahy (D-VT)
Patty Murray (D-WA)
Russ Feingold (D-WI)
A few familiar names there, no? Who is that guy from Illinois again? Anyway, let's look at some basic statistics. We have 17 Rs to 15 Ds. Regardless of who wins the presidential race, this will stay the same, as I believe AZ law requires the governor to replace a departing senator with someone of their own party, and I doubt Blagojevich is likely to put a Republican in Illinois' seat. Indeed, there's been talk in some excellent diaries of late that he might even install himself.
Now, I'd like to try to rate these in terms of how they're likely to flip come Election Day, 2010. Now, I'm from MI, so I do not have the local knowledge to do this terribly accurately, so feel free to weigh in via the comments section to toss out your own prognostications!
Safe Dem:
Blanche Lincoln (D-AR)
Barbara Boxer (D-CA)
Chris Dodd (D-CT)
Daniel Inouye (D-HI)
Barack Obama (D-IL)
Evan Bayh (D-IN)
Barbara Mikulski (D-MD) (UPDATED: Might be retiring)
Byron Dorgan (D-ND)
Chuck Schumer (D-NY)
Ron Wyden (D-OR)
Patrick Leahy (D-VT)
Patty Murray (D-WA)
Russ Feingold (D-WI)
Likely Dem:
Ken Salazar (D-CO)
Lean Dem:
Harry Reid (D-NV)
Lean Rep:
John McCain (R-AZ)
Mel Martinez (R-FL)
David Vitter (R-LA)
George Voinovich (R-OH)
Arlen Specter (R-PA)
Likely Rep:
Lisa Murkowski (R-AK)
Jim Bunning (R-KY)
Safe Rep:
Richard Shelby (R-AL)
Johnny Isakson (R-GA)
Mike Crapo (R-ID)
Chuck Grassley (R-IA)
Sam Brownback (R-KS) (UPDATED: Retiring! If Sebelius enters the fray, this could bust right open!)
Jim Bunning (R-KY)
Kit Bond (R-MO)
Richard Burr (R-NC) (UPDATED: Defection possibility?)
Tom Coburn (R-OK)
Jim DeMint (R-SC)
Robert Bennett (R-UT)
Now, a little bit of my methodology here. Again, I don't have a finger on the pulse of many of these states, so most of my thinking went along the lines of "Can I think of any risk the candidate might face as of right now?" If no, I left them safe, if yes, they went closer toward the middle. But now, some detail:
On the Presidential Candidate's Races:
In Illinois, I certainly hope Barack Obama won't have to run for re-election, and assuming he doesn't, I think a lot of factors will depend on who Blagojevich puts in the seat. I imagine that if the seat opens up, it instantly moves into the Likely/Lean column, just because I remember how heated the Senate race in Illinois was (you know, before all the sex scandals and Alan Keyes happened. After that, it was cakewalk territory).
In Arizona, John McCain will hopefully be still in his seat in 2010, and I can think of a few reasons why he might want to leave. Regardless of whether or not he stays, I think the seat's probably looking at a fierce competition from popular Democratic Gov. Janet Napolitano, which pushes this seat into the Lean column. If the polls showing Arizona as close presidentially turn out to be true, and this belies some sort of demographic shift that favors the Democrats, this could prove to be a very competitive race for the Dems, even with McCain defending the seat.
Lean and Likely Dem columns:
Regarding Salazar, I'll have to confess my ignorance. I remember the race being fairly close, and while CO is trending heavily Democratic, I felt like giving the benefit of the doubt, especially considering how (for a time) the CO senate race this year was (supposed to be) close. Given the challenge the Republicans had in finding a candidate this time around, we can hope that the recruiting troubles plus Salazar's incumbency moves this back into the Safe column come November, 2010.
Regarding Reid, his race was incredibly close last time, if I remember correctly, and given the twin risks of a Republican urge to "Daschle" Reid (especially if we do the same to Mitch McConnell this year) and the historical trend of one-party rule never lasting long (more on that below), Reid will very likely need our support in two year's time. Let's hope Congress has a productive session in the next two years, so that Reid has some laurels to call upon!
Lean and Likely Rep columns:
I've discussed McCain already, so let's look at Mel Martinez's race. Oh wait, brownsox already has, finding that Martinez has a lot to worry about come 2010, according to PPP. Furthermore, given how hispanics are trending Democratic, Martinez may not be able to count on some of his base. I look forward to some Floridians weighing in on this one.
Ahh...David Vitter. Well, Mary Landrieu's already shown us that there are still enough Dems around post-hurricanes to elect Democrats to the Senate, but how will the electorate respond to everyone's favorite diaper-wearing Senator? While the scandal will be several years old by then, some things don't pass out of the public consciousness as quickly, and this may be one of those things.
As for George Voinovich, now it's kos who's beaten me to the story, posting more PPP work showing that Voinovich may have a lot of work to do to hold his seat, tying 33-33 against Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan--a purely hypothetical match-up. Ohioans, let us hear your side of things! How good are Voinovich's chances for re-election--and who should run against him?
Last in the lean column, we have Arlen Specter. While there has been lots of talk about Chris Matthews jumping into the race (something I personally think would be disastrous--the only thing that makes for better negative ad material against you than a lengthy Senate voting record is thousands of hours of videotape), PA is a swing state senatorially, and another issue is whether Specter's health, which has been spotty over the last few years, will make him consider retirement. We shouldn't expect as effortless an upheaval as we gave to Rick Santorum on another beautiful November day, but we could definitely give this one all we've got.
As for the two Likely Republican seats, Lisa Murkowski is there for the same reason Ken Salazar was on the Likely Dem list--I have no specific reason to think so, but there could be something here. How things shake out with Stevens vs. Begich, as well as Sarah Palin's re-election as governor, as well as how Alaska defines itself politically in the next 2 years, could change things drastically. Dem recruitment might be difficult, but I only think that because I don't know who's around to run (aside from Tony Knowles, who hasn't had much luck lately). Thoughts, Alaskans?
Lastly, Jim Bunning. I remember the last time this was up. Bunning participated in a debate via television, and it was surmised that aides were feeding him answers offscreen. Bunning's health (mentally maybe even more than physically) was talked about much, and there seemed to be a number of factors that could help Democratic candidate Montagno steal the seat. Alas, it was not to be, and since then, what has Bunning done with his six more years in the Senate? Well? Anyone? As for why it's in the Likely column, my one prediction is that we'll end up with an open seat here, and that a fresh-faced Republican will cruise to victory. However, if the Lunsford campaign would like to give McConnell a hiding in Kentucky and prove me wrong about Democratic chances in the state, I wouldn't object.
As for the safe seats, I don't see too much controversy. Daniel Inouye might retire, leading to an open seat that will probably go to the Dems, considering past performance in the state. A lot of you would like to see an end to Tom Coburn's time in the Senate, but we haven't heard a lot from Andrew Rice's campaign as of late, and I've grown pessimistic about Democrats in Oklahoma again. Furthermore, I think Coburn could portray himself as a principled anti-spending champion and cruise to victory that way. Sure, we here don't believe a word of it, but that is why we're here on DKos to begin with.
(UPDATED: Commenters have informed me that Brownback has announced his retirement, and that Mikulski might do the same. Considering the leans of those states, I'd say the Dems are as safe in MD as the Reps are as safe in KS, but open races always make for a more exciting race--especially if, as commenter Swordopolis points out, the term-limited Kathleen Sebelius enters the fray. Look out, Kansans! LAstly, mrConcern's comment points out that Richard Shelby accidentally leaked important info on how the CIA was listening in on terrorists. THAT is a negative ad in the waiting!)
Environmental Factors
I don't mean the environment as in greenhouse gases, I mean factors that could change the fates of all races in the country. I see a few possibilities, none of which are particularly spectacular for the Dems, I'm afraid.
One-Party Rule Trends: Typically, when a president comes into power who is of the same party as the Congress, that party in Congress sees a bloodbath two years later (for example, 1994). On the other hand, a president can come in with the other party in control and see a reverse bloodbath (for example, 2002) so who knows what's going on? Fortunately for us, 2006 balanced things out again, and now we look poised for massive leads in Congress as well as a Democratic president. How well things go in the next two years, and how much trust Democrats can build, may very well decide whether we see gains, losses, or big losses come 2010. There are some Democratic senators who will likely never be voted out (Leahy faced down The Joker, for goodness sake!), but who knows?
Overall, I don't think 2010 will be as dramatic a year overall as this one has turned out to be, with 5 to 8 races looking very strong for us and up to 11 races where we have a fighting chance. After all, look at where the Republican senators up in 2010 are from. Only one (Specter) is from a Kerry state. But I count 8 senators (Specter, McCain, Martinez, Voinovich, Isakson, Grassley, Bond, and Burr) from possible future Obama states. Some (like Grassley, who has huge approval ratings) will be able to hold on thanks in part to the many benefits of incumbency. But, two years is a long time, time for us to hope, fight, and vote for the best.