The headline says, "Obama's ahead, polls say, but will the lead last?"
Legitimate question, to be sure. But here's how CNN's Alan Silverlieb arrives at his "abundance of caution" answer:
When a presidential race has a non-incumbent in the lead, like this year, the poll numbers tend to tighten as Election Day gets closer, CNN senior researcher Alan Silverleib said.
"Any time it looks like they are on the verge of voting somebody new into office, there is buyer's remorse," he said. "Based on that, and the fact that the country has been so polarized in recent elections, there's pretty good reason to think that the polls might tighten up a little bit."
If you missed the idiocy, read again. If you caught it, see you over the jump for more of it.
See, I know this rare, what with nearly 80 years passing since it last occurred, but both of the candidates are non-incumbents, Alan. Both are "new" -- at least in the "non-incumbent" context by which you define "new."
Has Barack Obama really done that good of a job in painting John McSame as the incumbent Bushie?
But wait! Here's an example of the dreaded tightening that Mr. Silverlieb warns about:
Four years ago, a national CNN poll of polls released about a week before Election Day showed President Bush leading Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry by 3 points, 49 percent to 46 percent.
The poll was released October 25 and reflected likely voters' choice for president. Election Day was November 2 in 2004.
A national CNN poll of polls released November 1 showed Bush leading Kerry by 2 points, 48 percent to 46 percent.
President Bush won by 3 percentage points, 51 percent to 48 percent.
Say what? 3 points...then to 2...then to 3. That's "tightening"?
Seriously, the media is so bent on getting the ratings that result from a close race, that they've actually borrowed a page from the McSame playbook and started making shit up!
But wait! Here's more of that buyer's remorse!
There have been a few examples of such "buyer's remorse" in recent history, Silverleib said.
"We saw that with [Arkansas Gov. Bill] Clinton in 1992, when the polls suddenly tightened up during the last week," he said. "It was almost like people saying, 'Do we really want this guy?' "
They did. Clinton soundly defeated President George H. W. Bush, 43 percent to 37 percent.
WTF? A 6-point drubbing is "buyer's remorse"?
Thanks for the insight, CNN!