Kos put out an excellent diary about the RNC ad buy in Montana. Kos thinks the buy demonstrates that the RNC has given up on McCain and is just trying to hang onto as much territory as possible - for propaganda purposes as much as anything else (there was a lot more red than blue on 2000 and 2004 maps). This sounds quite plausible to me (although Occam's razor would probably tell us that the RNC is just flailing around like a beheaded chicken right now). It got me thinking about numbers, so I thought I'd play "Poblano" (a game where you imagine you're Nate Silver and try to do something clever with numbers - like playing "House" with a spreadsheet). I wanted to figure out the percentage of the United States' land area that Obama might plausibly win. I will omit Alaska and Hawaii, which together comprise about 16.5% of the 50 states' land area. Here's some quick numbers:
In 2004 Bush won 74.8% of the lower 48 states' land area (78.8% of all 50 states' land area). 28.38%
For the 2008 Election:
SAFE OBAMA - 20 + 1 states, 268 EV (Hawaii omitted): 28.38% of the lower 48's land area
LEAN OBAMA - 4 states, 39 EV: 12.5%
TOSSUP - 7 states, 85 EV: 16.01%
LEAN MCCAIN - 4 states, 24 EV: 8.71%
SAFE MCCAIN - 13 states, 118 EV (Alaska omitted): 34.06%
In order to turn over 50% of the lower 48's land area blue, Obama must win the Kerry states plus Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, Virginia, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Missouri, Montana (367 electoral votes) AND either North Dakota (3 EV) or Indiana (11 EV) for a total of 370 or 378 EV. For today, October 28, 538.com gives Obama a 41% chance of gaining 375+ electoral votes. I would guess that Obama has about the same chance (40% or so) of cracking 50% in the land area game too.
For the method to my madness, I used theUSGS list of states by land area and inland water area. Wikipedia's lists are no good because their total areas for the states include the state's maritime boundaries and the Great Lakes, which don't show up on the Electoral red-blue map. Remember that I omitted Alaska and Hawaii from my calculations. I used the October 28, 2008 version ofPollster.com'selectoral map to categorize states as safe, lean, or tossup (though I consider West Virginia lean McCain because the RNC is buying ads there too). I copied and pasted the excel spreadsheet below, and it doesn't format well I'm afraid. It's kind of a disaster. But It follows the pattern of the USGS spreadsheet I downloaded the numbers from. If you want to play around with the numbers yourself, go to that link.
STATE - LAND AREA - INLAND WATER AREA - PERCENTAGE OF US INLAND WATER AREA
So here's the disaster area. There's not really anything to read here that I haven't covered. I just though I should include it. THANKS FOR READING!
USING POLLSTER Ratings 10.28.2008
SAFE OBAMA (20 + 1, 268 EV) (Hawaii Omitted)
Rhode Island 1,045 178 17.00%
D.C. 61 7 11.50%
Maine 30,862 2,264 7.30%
Maryland 9,774 680 7.00%
Minnesota 79,610 4,783 6.00%
Massachusetts 7,840 423 5.40%
New Jersey 7,417 396 5.30%
New York 47,214 1,895 4.00%
Vermont 9,250 365 3.90%
Delaware 1,954 72 3.70%
New Hampshire 8,968 314 3.50%
Wisconsin 54,310 1,830 3.40%
Connecticut 4,845 161 3.30%
Michigan 56,804 1,611 2.80%
Virginia 39,594 1,006 2.50%
Washington 66,544 1,553 2.30%
California 155,959 2,674 1.70%
Illinois 55,584 756 1.40%
Oregon 95,997 1,050 1.10%
Pennsylvania 44,817 490 1.10%
Iowa 55,869 402 0.70%
834,318 22910
lan, inlwa w/o AK/HA safe BHO 857,228 28.38%
/3,020,580 =
LEAN OBAMA (4 states, 39 EV)
Ohio 40,948 378 0.90%
Colorado 103,718 376 0.40%
New Mexico 121,356 234 0.20%
Nevada 109,826 735 0.70%
375,848 1723
lan, inlwa w/o AK/HA lean BHO 377,571 12.50%
/3,020,580 =
TOSS UP (7 States, 85 EV)
Florida 53,927 4,672 8.70%
North Carolina 48,711 3,960 8.10%
North Dakota 68,976 1,724 2.50%
Georgia 57,906 1,016 1.80%
Missouri 68,886 818 1.20%
Montana 145,552 1,490 1.00%
Indiana 35,867 316 0.90%
479,825 13,996
lan, inlwa w/o AK/HA tossup 483,819 16.01%
/3,020,580 =
LEAN MCCAIN (4 states, 24 EV)
Mississippi 46,907 785 1.70%
South Dakota 75,885 1,232 1.60%
West Virginia* (b/c of RNC ads) 24,078 152 0.60%
Arizona 113,635 364 0.30%
260,505 2533
lan, inlwa w/o AK/HA lean JSM 263,038 8.71%
/3,020,580 =
SOLID MCCAIN (13 states, 118 EV) (Alaska Omitted)
Louisiana 43,562 4,154 9.50%
Utah 82,144 2,755 3.40%
South Carolina 30,110 1,008 3.30%
Tennessee 41,217 926 2.20%
Arkansas 52,068 1,110 2.10%
Texas 261,797 5,056 1.90%
Alabama 50,744 956 1.90%
Oklahoma 68,667 1,231 1.80%
Kentucky 39,728 681 1.70%
Idaho 82,747 823 1.00%
Wyoming 97,100 713 0.70%
Nebraska 76,872 481 0.60%
Kansas 81,815 462 0.60%
1,008,571 20,356
lan, inlwa w/o AK/HA safe JSM 1,028,927 34.06%
/3,020,580 =
key: "lan, inlwa w/ AK/HA" = Total land area plus inland water area (with AK, HA)
key: "lan, inlwa w/o AK/HA" = Total land area plus inland water area (without AK, HA)
Total U.S. land area plus total U.S. inland water area (excluding the Great Lakes) =
ALL IN SQUARE MILES Total Land Area Total Inland water area
United States 3,537,441 78,799 2.20%
TOTAL = 3,616,240 sq miles
Total land area plus inland water area (w/ or w/o AK, HA, accordingly)
Total U.S. land area plus total U.S. inland water area (excluding the Great Lakes) =
ALL IN SQUARE MILES Total Land Area Total Inland water area
United States 3,537,441 78,799 2.20%
TOTAL = 3,616,240 sq miles
t land, inl wa w/o AK, HI BUSH STATES 2,260,228 74.8% of land
/3,020,580 =
tot land, inl wa w/ AK, HI BUSH STATES 2,849,422 78.8% of total US LAND
/3,616,240 =
SAFE OBAMA (20 + 1, 268 EV) (Hawaii Omitted)
lan, inlwa w/o AK/HA safe BHO 857,228 sq. miles 28.38%
/3,020,580 =
LEAN OBAMA (4 states, 39 EV)
lan, inlwa w/o AK/HA lean BHO 377,571 sq. miles 12.50%
/3,020,580 =
TOSS UP (7 States, 85 EV)
lan, inlwa w/o AK/HA tossup 483,819 sq. miles 16.01%
/3,020,580 =
LEAN MCCAIN (4 states, 24 EV)
lan, inlwa w/o AK/HA lean JSM 263,038 sq. miles 8.71%
/3,020,580 =
SAFE MCCAIN (13 states, 118 EV) (Alaska Omitted)
lan, inlwa w/o AK/HA safe JSM 1,028,927 sq. miles 34.06%
/3,020,580 =