I see a lot of people freaking out about the polls tightening. Some, such as slinkerwink below, offer constructive and helpful criticism. Others unfortunately just run around like chickens with their heads off attempting to incite mass panic (which, by the way, isn't very helpful).
The fact is, Obama's got everything going for him, and while none of us should get complacent, whatever ground McCain's making up is too little... too late.
Follow me beneath the fold of DOOOMED...
Okay, so the new Rass poll has got you down. McCain's closed within 3 points of Obama.
Well, big whoop! Things don't always go your way in the polls. Sometimes you're down, sometimes you're up. It's like craps (ask John).
The Obama campaign has said that daily trackers are the worst thing to ever happen to political campaigns, because you end up having statistical noise drive the narrative instead of longterm plays.
What we're seeing is the same tightening that almost all campaigns see near the end of their natural course. If the polls didn't tighten, that would be the exception, not the rule. Kerry tightened with Bush. We all know how that race shook out. But Obama is still way ahead than Bush was at this time, both nationally and even moreso electorally. There would need to be an epic collapse for McCain to even be at 50-50 odds. Right now, he's nowhere near where he needs to be, and with 6 days left most people (www.intrade.com) are betting he won't come close. But you're still freaking out... you're thinking "Maybe Obama doesn't know what he's doing. Oh, why oh why, did he have to visit his dying grandmother? Doesn't she know that, it's like totally uncool and selfish to break her hip in the last week of the election?!" Well, shit. I certainly hope you're not thinking that, but I have seen some people say he shouldn't have visited her. For shame!
Or, even more bizarrely, you're thinking "Oh why oh why, did he have to wander down THAT specific street in Ohio and meet THAT Mr Clean clone who's supposed to be a plumber, but isn't!" Well, Joe the Plumber aint swingin' shit with his wild Shepherd Smith-offending rants about Obama personally nuking Israel. The guy's a FOXNews fabrication and he's an epic-fail just like the dyslexic 'B' carver. So chill. He'll fade into obscurity on November 5th and with his Hannity exclusive money drying up, will be back to committing tax fraud in NO TIME!
Things are cool. They really are. The only place where concern would be seen as legitimate is Free Republic, where they're rooting for a candidate who is behind in all the battleground polls, most of which have already had substantial early-voting. I'll give you a hint... the guy's name rhymes with "Insane." With pundits left, right and center already writing McCain post-mortems and predicting Obama to have anywhere between 300 and 375 electoral votes, they truly do have reason to freak out.
An election is never a 100% complete certainty. You have to have steel in your spine like Obama and be prepared for a future that you have no way of completely knowing the outcome of. But Obama is not an underdog, or at 50-50 odds, or even a slight favorite. The dude is almost a lock. And so while I'm thrilled by the fact that he is 95% certain to win next tuesday, some people are instead freaking out about the 5% chance he loses. To lose at this point, would be unprecendented, and would involve ALL the battleground states where Obama is ahead to flip in the next six days (in such a way too, that makes up for all the early votes already in the bank). Is it possible? Yeah, but it's also possible I could win the lotto next week. For those publicly freaking out and asking others to hold their hands and "talk them down", your hysterics aren't helping us, but rather being an unnecessary bummer and a pissy reminder that no, we can't predict the future with 100% certainty. But a lot of us are focusing on the great chance that Obama will win next week, not the miniscule sliver of fake hope that the McCain camp has of flipping PA of all places.
So, while you might be a sweaty mess deprived of sleep and sunlight and hunched over your monitor refreshing Kos every 30 seconds, Obama is doing just fine. They have a plan and if they have shown anything, it's that they know how to pull out all the stops to win.
Tonight Obama is hitting the airwaves with his 30 minute nationally televised commercial that's hitting the airwaves before baseball teams from the two most important swing-states (PA and FL) duke it out. A great way to reach undecideds. GOP strategists are freaking out about this "sucking the oxygen" out of a news cycle or two. That's exactly what the Doctor ordered, and as we barrel towards the election and the sheer awesomeness of a President Obama.... I ask you, no beg of you.... instead of engaging in Daily Kos concern troll-ism and asking other, more sturdy posters to talk you down, focus that nervous energy on getting out the vote and making calls.
I am very much looking forward to six days time, when there will be no concern trolls, but just 200,000 ecstatic Kossacks whoopin' and hollering for years to come. Don't get weak-kneed now!