If there is one thing I hate about debates, it is how the corporate media inevitably play the expectations game to the GOP candidates' benefit. We saw this in 2000 in Bush vs Gore, 2004 in Bush vs Kerry, and in the debates so far in 2008.
This is the (intellectually dishonest) media playbook:
- Lower expectations for the candidate you want to benfeit from the debate (usually the GOP candidate).
- Watch as they clear a bar so low that it was inevitable that they would clear it.
- Declare them the winner even if the Democrat did better, because the GOP candidate "beat expectations"
- Rev up the media echo chamber to repeat over and over that the GOP candidate "won."
But this is why the CNN insta-poll is so cool - it shreads the notion that beating expectations means "winning the debate" as the pundits want to think.
Check this out:
Fifty-one percent of those polled thought Biden did the best job in Thursday night's debate, while 36 percent thought Palin did the best job.
But respondents said the folksy Palin was more likable, scoring 54 percent to Biden's 36 percent.
Both candidates exceeded expectations — 84 percent of the people polled said Palin did a better job than they expected, while 64 percent said Biden also exceeded expectations.
But on the question of the candidates' qualifications to assume the presidency, 87 percent of the people polled said Biden is qualified while only 42 percent said Palin is qualified.
This is really, really important.
Palin exceeded expecations more than Biden did, but Biden still won the debate.
Palin was considered more likable than was Biden, but Palin was still considered unqualified.
So to me the interesting question is less about who "won" the debate, it's that this poll proves voters don't see things like the media pundits do. They can like someone and say that she beat expectations, but still say she lost and is unqualified.