OK, I want to make it clear at the outset that this is no where near a comprehensive analysis of early voting statistics in Ohio. Quite frankly I would like to see such an analysis similar to some that we saw during the primaries in Texas and Ohio. However, I did go and look up a few statitics on the web using the "the google" to find several county board of elections. Some of them provided statistics, but most did not. However, I was able to find a couple of larger counties that had early voting statistics up. Here is what I found.
More below the fold . . .
In Democratic leaning Franklin County, which went for Kerry by a margin of 55-45 and resulted in Kerry netting just under 50,000 votes, 161,036 citizens have requested absentee ballots. According to CNN.com, 525,798 people voted in the 2004 Presidential election in Franklin County. So in Franklin County, the ratio of absentee votes requested this year to the total number of votes cast in the 2004 Presidential election is 30.6%
In contrast, in Butler County, which is a Republican stronghold that went for Bush by a margin of 66-34 in 2004 and resulted in Bush netting just over 50,000 votes, 20,846 people have either requested absentee ballots or voted early in person. According to CNN.com, 166,813 people voted in the 2004 Presidential election in Butler County. So in Butler County the ratio of absentee votes requested this year to the total number of votes cast in the 2004 Presidential election is only 12.5%.
I looked at several other County board of election websites, and unfortunately, they didn't provide any statistical data on early voting. Perhaps that information can be obtained by calling the various county board of election websites and asking someone for it. However, I don't have the time to do that. It would however be interesting to see what such an analysis reveals.
Although more anecdotal than scientific due to the fact that my query only looked at two counties, the statistics discussed above certainly bode well for Barack Obama. It would be great if someone with more statistical knowledge and time than I could obtain the early voting statistics from all of Ohio's various counties, and run them in some sort of statistical model that would give us some sort of idea as to how Obama's ground game is paying off. With that said, now is certainly not the time to get complacent. If you live in Ohio, then get off your computer and go door to door. If you live elsewhere, than canvass or phone bank in your own state. If your like me, and you don't have a lot of time, donate money! Let's win this thing!