2008 has the potential to be a transformational election if we want it to be. It's up to us to work the streets, make the phone calls, email friends and family, and take people to the polls. Not only an increased majority in the House, not only 60 seats in the Senate, not only a new Democratic president with a thumping mandate, but ultimately we could foment a thoroughly demoralized, defeated, and divided Republican party whose schisms could haunt the Republican party for a generation.
To understand what the possibilities are, we must look back at the past to remember just how painful a transformational election can be for a once ruling party.
Election Night 1980
High numbers of undecideds and the only debate the week before the election created the potential for a relatively unpredictable election, but coming into election day, most pundits and polls had expected a close election both in terms of the popular and electoral vote. Whatever momentum was noticed seemed to be going to Reagan, but almost no one predicted the landslide that was about to occur.
In this clip we not a man who has just lost, but who has been thoroughly beaten. Stronghold after stronghold falling into the Republican column causing the election to be called far farther in advance than almost anyone had expected.
A few highlights:
Harry Reasoner noting that a candidate need not have a popular vote landslide to get a dominating electoral vote victory. (see 1:40 above)
Dan Rather's comments potentially could be used verbatim to describe 2008, note his endline: "People simply wanted a change." (starting at 3:55, above)
Remember, or imagine if you're too young, what it felt like to be a Democrat that night. Jimmy Carter had lost in an epic electoral vote landslide and the Republicans took control of the Senate and had an ideological working majority in the House.
Election Day/Night 1984
I highlight this election to note the possibilities for an Obama reelection campaign four years from now with more Millenials of voting age and god knows how many people altering their world views seeing that the world did not end with the election of an African-American as president.
The 1984 general election was one of the biggest foregone conclusions in modern American presidential politics. Imagine waking up on election day knowing that there was no question of who was going to win, but instead wondering, how big was the landslide going to be?
CBS called this election for Reagan at 8pm Eastern Time. Yes, 8pm.
This was a ridiculously thorough beat down we received in 1984. CBS resorted to putting Washington D.C. on a blinker on their electoral map to give Democrats something to look at (see 6:08, above). We lost just about every state previously considered "safe." Perhaps the biggest humiliation of this stretch was the calling of New York (see 7:30, above), despite a New Yorker on the ticket and the powerful Democratic establishment in the state.
Now let's move on to some of the bizarre spectacles that happen during an election night landslide, notably various sections of the party ripping other sections of the party on national television.
Here at (0:48) we see a southern party chair decrying the national party while whining that his faction of the party didn't get listened to. They also discuss some podunk county judge named Mitch McConnell who shocked the establishment by beating an incumbent Democratic Senate member of the Democratic power structure. Hmm.
If you didn't hate McConnell enough also note the Sander Vanocur piece near the end of the clip pointing out that McConnell used highly misleading ads written by some punk named Roger Ailes. (starting at about 5:15, above)
Here we see Jesse Jackson brought out defending his "faction" of the party and in his defense implicitly criticizing the other faction of the Democratic "family".
Therein lies the devastation of a transformational election: a once national party becomes less a cohesive unit and more a divided, dispirited group of factions fighting amongst themselves for control of the whole instead of working against the other party.
Also there are the little things about seeing a party at it's nadir. Note the way too exuberant local anchorwoman describe the station's home Cuyahoga county voters as "clinging to it's Democratic tradition despite the Reagan landslide." (see 4:00 to 5:00, above)
That doesn't even speak to the severe humiliation of Walter Mondale who had to wait until the dead end of the network broadcasts to see NBC project his own home state for him. (see 7:10, above)
Conclusion (w/ a happy video for a change)
If you've made it this far and watched all those clips, then you know and/or remember what those elections felt like as a Democrat. Now, wouldn't you love to do that to the Republicans? Do you want to see former Republican strongholds vote for a Democrat? Do you want to see the pundits talk about the end of the Reagan/conservative orthodoxy? Do you want to see the Republican party rip itself to shreds on national television? Do you want to see a successful President Obama ride a successful first term, to a ridiculously large 1984-type landslide in 2012 building off 2008.
As we saw in 1980, we don't necessarily need a massive, double-digit lead in the popular vote to win a crushing electoral vote landslide. We just need to consistently win swing states by a few points. To use the Pollster.com numbers as of 10/30 as possibilities depending on how big WE make the Obama wave:
Safe Obama + Lean Obama = 311 EVs (a win, but Republicans can still think that they were close, plus we underperform our own expectations)
Safe Obama + Lean Obama + Tossup = 396 EVs (And extremely strong performance that would demoralize the Republican party, but still nothing truly shocking)
Safe Obama + Lean Obama + Tossup + Lean McCain = 415 EV's (Historic landslide that shocks the world, the punditocracy, and sets off a decade plus of Republican division, demoralization, and infighting)
Let's not take anything for granted. No matter where you live let's work our butts off to make the margin for Barack and the Democrats as big as possible. Don't whine about a lack of ads in your area. If you have a Democratic office in your area then give them everything they want and more. Work your streets, neighborhoods, friends and acquaintances for the Democratic ticket. Don't leave anything behind. Don't wake up on November 5th regretting that we only squeak by, or god forbid, lose. Let's wipe them out, let's make them feel what it's like to be on the losing end of a landslide for a change.
If that isn't enough here's a little positive motivation from the 2006 Jim Webb victory party showing the euphoria that a little hard work can bring:
Now the extent of the euphoria in 2008, if any, is up to us.