Postulated ad nauseum by political pundits, now and during the primary, is that the Rosetta to winning the Keystone state lies in the suburbs of Pennsylvania. This formula can be offset by the Rendell strategy, however. That is the running up of the score in the major cities- Pittsburgh and Philadelphia and their suburbs. No doubt, Obama will fair well here, but how well remains to be seen.
The suburbs and towns that ring the central Pennsylvania city of Harrisburg have been deeply Republican since Lincoln was alive.
Newsweek's Howard Fineman continues to give his prognostication:
In Philadelphia, Obama is considered likely to pile up at least a 500,000-vote majority—the kind of "mo" he will need to compensate for weaker showings in more rural parts of the commonwealth.
In the Democratic primary, however Obama failed to benefit from this strategy as his numbers disappointed in Philly (+150,000) and in Pittsburgh (-25,000) and made less than a dent in the rural/suburban areas that Hilary Clinton dominated. Her 30% average margins of victory in those counties outside of metropolitan parts of Pennsylvania were too much for Obama to overcome. For him the Rendell strategy didn’t hold, at least in the primary.
Democratic Primary Results
Tuesday, April 22
Real-time Race Results: Updated September 8, 2008 - 11:58 AM
Precincts Reporting 100%
Candidate Votes Vote % Delegates Projected Winner
Clinton
1,275,039 55% 101 Winner
Obama
1,061,441 45% 80
But strange things are happening right now—things that bode well for Sen. Barack Obama...
The areas dominated by Clinton in the primary are leaning toward Obama, in some cases heavily.
I [Howard Fineman] am told that a new private poll in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre area shows Obama up by nearly 20 points—a pretty astounding number.
20 points- in an area of Pennsylvania that Hilary won, in the primary, by a 50 point margin- 74%-26%! This inside information, if true, supports those polls that show Obama with a double digit lead. I believe them to be true.
More comfort food through stating the obvious:
If McCain can’t win Pennsylvania, he’s going to have to win every red state left on the table to have a shot at victory.
Obama leads or is tied in at least 10 of those red states...
[DIARY DISCLAIMER: I don't know Pennsylvania or it's politics, but I know comfort food]