MN-Sen: Flip a coin

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 10/27-29. Likely voters. MoE 4% (10/15-16 results)

Coleman (R) 43 (39)
Franken (D) 40 (41)
Barkley (I) 15 (18)

McCain (R) 38 (39)
Obama (D) 53 (52)

Already voted (16 percent of sample)

Coleman (R) 33
Franken (D) 45
Barkley (I) 22

McCain (R) 34
Obama (D) 58

Seriously, just flip a coin in this Senate race. Barkley is the big unknown. And for those who think that Barkley voters will abandon him for a major party candidate in the voting booth, those early voting numbers suggest otherwise.

p.s. Remember when this was a presidential swing state?

On the web:
Al Franken for Senate
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MINNESOTA POLL RESULTS – OCTOBER 2008
                                                                 
The Research 2000 Minnesota Poll was conducted from October 27 through October 29, 2008. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.

Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.

SAMPLE FIGURES:

Men                  295 (49%)
Women                305 (51%)

Democrats            242 (40%)
Republicans          186 (31%)
Independents/Other   172 (29%)

18-29                115 (19%)
30-44                199 (33%)
45-59                188 (32%)
60+                   98 (16%)

Voted                 97 (16%)
Not Voted            503 (84%)

QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Al Franken? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                 11%         34%         27%         25%          3%

                   FAV         UNFAV       NO OPINION

ALL                 45%         52%          3%

MEN                 41%         57%          2%
WOMEN               49%         47%          4%

DEMOCRATS           73%         25%          2%
REPUBLICANS         15%         82%          3%
INDEPENDENTS        40%         57%          3%

18-29               52%         46%          2%
30-44               44%         52%          4%
45-59               42%         56%          2%
60+                 42%         54%          4%

QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Norm Coleman? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                 14%         32%         28%         23%          3%

                   FAV         UNFAV       NO OPINION

ALL                 46%         51%          3%

MEN                 50%         47%          3%
WOMEN               42%         55%          3%

DEMOCRATS           22%         75%          3%
REPUBLICANS         79%         20%          1%
INDEPENDENTS        44%         51%          5%

18-29               41%         55%          4%
30-44               44%         53%          3%
45-59               49%         48%          3%
60+                 50%         47%          3%

QUESTION: If the election for U.S. Senate were held today would you vote for Al Franken the Democrat Norm Coleman the Republican or Dean Barkley an Independent?

                   FRANKEN     COLEMAN     BARKLEY     UNDECIDED  

ALL                 40%         43%         15%          2%

VOTED               45%         33%         22%
NOT VOTED           39%         45%         14%

MEN                 36%         47%         16%          1%
WOMEN               44%         39%         14%          3%

DEMOCRATS           74%         10%         13%          3%
REPUBLICANS          4%         89%          6%          1%
INDEPENDENTS        30%         41%         28%          1%

18-29               43%         39%         17%          1%
30-44               40%         44%         15%          1%
45-59               38%         47%         13%          2%
60+                 39%         42%         15%          4%

QUESTION: If the election for President were held today would you vote for the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin or another candidate?

                   OBAMA       MCCAIN      OTHER       UNDECIDED  

ALL                 53%         38%          4%          5%

VOTED               58%         34%          8%
NOT VOTED           52%         39%          4%

MEN                 50%         41%          5%          4%
WOMEN               56%         35%          3%          6%

DEMOCRATS           86%          6%          3%          5%
REPUBLICANS          9%         82%          3%          6%
INDEPENDENTS        55%         36%          5%          4%

18-29               56%         35%          4%          5%
30-44               54%         37%          5%          4%
45-59               49%         42%          4%          5%
60+                 53%         38%          3%          6%