Now I'm not saying we are out of the woods by any stretch -- we still have 33 days of smears, caging, stunts and other dirty tricks to avoid but...
Well, let's say the Big O that has been rolling across this country and gathering steam continues to snowball... can we get to 400? 500? 600? over 9000?! More importantly will there be a sweet irreverent poll at the end? You betcha! ^_~
If you are looking for serious in-depth analysis, follow me below the fold... continue to scroll down until you reach the comments as someone may have added something insightful there. Yes this is a dumb diary but the ATMs are still working which has made me breath a sigh of relief...
I'd say 400 EV is an order of magnitude greater then where we are now but still a very real possibility...
The current map has us around 277 solid incl. MN and NH. If we can keep our momentum up and close the deal in the coinflip states of CO, NV, IN, OH and FL (like I think we will) that's 349 EV's well within reach (sorta looks like the 2000 map sans Nader...)
Here are the remaining Red prizes in the order I think they would defect from McCain and the resulting EV total as they aggregate:
Road to 400:
NC (364)
NE-2 (365) {Omaha and surroundings}
MO (376)
WV (381) - just exceeding Clinton's EV totals
MT (384)
ND (387)
GA (402)
These would gives us a complete sweep of the Plouffe swing states (and more) and hit the not-magic but still significant 400+ EV's.
Assuming Obama dodges the biggest land mines on the way to 11/4 a lot of people would take the safe bet that the map finishes somewhere between 360 and 380.
I'm greedy though. I'm not sure it's possible to underestimate the lack of enthusiasm of the republican middle. Or how horrible a campaign John McCain is running. All of this and the economy could easily drag him down from the low 50's in any of the following states:
AK (405) - payback for Lloyd Benson not delivering Texas.
SD (408)
TX (442)
AZ (452) - payback for TN in 2000
NE-1 (453) {Lincoln and Eastern rural Nebraska}
LA (462)
MS (468)
NE (470) {state majority: 2 EV's}
AR (476)
KY (484)
KS (490)
Losing the lot of those leaves McCain with his Dukakis/Stevenson stronghold map. I'm not sure it's even conceivable that he loses more then this through expected gaffes and terrible campaigning alone. Carter lost the whole map in 80 but he wasn't up 20 in all those states with a month to go the way McCain is with the next batch. I think some sort of scandal, debate collapse or economic event would have to happen for McCain to lose these:
NE-3 (491) {Western Nebraska}
WY (494)
TN (505)
SC (513)
Yay 500+! The last holdouts are all around +30 McLame at present and form his Goldwater/Carter in '80/Mondale map.
OK (520)
AL (529)
ID (533)
UT (538) - dead McCain still wins here I think
Now it's easy to hate on just Utah but I think even our Mormon brothers in SLC could be brought into the light... in 2012.
Why bother with any of this? Isn't 270 good enough? Or 269 with (or without) pop vote? Or isn't a safe 300-330 good enough?
Sure but the more EV's you landslide by the better your mandate is for pushing through your agenda. It all cascades downticket as well, getting us to 60+ in the Sen, lowering the need to rely on Lieberman, the blue dog caucus and fat cat dems that don't want campaign finance reform. It sends a message to the Tom Coburn's of the world (esp. Tom Coburn) that the country is united and voters will not tolerate their obstructionist tactics.
The Rethugs are at the cliffs, don't stop the stampede yet!
Well, thank god I'm done which means it must be sweet irreverent poll time: