This is perhaps the conventional wisdom at DailyKos, but having Chuck Todd say it on Meet the Press makes it news because "Todd’s mastery of math and his incessant appearances on NBC and MSNBC have made him the unofficial scorekeeper of Campaign ’08". Of course, Todd's math has mostly been simple arithmetic that most of us can do, but hey, he's saying it on national TV. (See also the quick update about Rove's map at the bottom of this diary. His math is even more gloomy for McCain than Chuck Todd's).
Via an article in Politico, Chuck is saying:
that Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) is just one state away from solidifying the 270 electoral votes he needs to win the White House. Colorado, Virginia or Florida would put it away for Obama if the election were held today, Todd said.
The latest NBC News estimate gives Obama 264 votes and McCain about 175.
So where does that leave us...
“Right now, Obama, one state away,” Todd said. “Even if it’s Nevada [making the total] 269, it sends it to the House, where Democrats have an advantage. Any other state, one state. As it stands today, John McCain would have to run the table. Now, good news for him: They’re all states that voted Republican four years ago.
Of course, that was before the horrific Bush final term, the GOP wipeout in the 2006 Congressional races, the recent Wall Street meltdown, or McCain-Palin's many problems as candidates.
So, if we can hold what we've got, and lock away one more state--stick a fork in McCain-Palin. They're done.
I would argue that a general perception that Obama will be the winner is important. It would dry up funding for the GOP, help down-ticket Dem races, and--no small factor--make it a lot harder for the election to be stolen. Having multiple states that could put us over helps in this regard because we're not just relying on Florida. Peeling Iowa, New Mexico and any of the following away from the Bush '04 states would do it: VA, FL, OH, NC, IN, NV, WV.
I would dispute how Chuck reads the polling in some of the tossup states--for example, is Virginia really dead even?-- but here's what he says:
“However, he’s behind right now a little bit in Ohio. There’s a dispute of who’s ahead or who’s behind in Florida but it feel as if Obama’s a little bit ahead in Florida. Obama’s a little bit ahead in Colorado. And it’s a dead even race in Virginia. Dead even in Nevada. And even Missouri, which we almost put in tossup this week, is getting very close, where McCain just has a very narrow lead.”
However, I do agree with this statement:
The McCain folks now have to hold everything … to keep this thing competitive.
Moreover, Republicans are worried.
Mike Murphy, a Republican strategist who was the architect of McCain’s 2000 campaign said: “It’s McCain’s barn that’s on fire. … Thirty days out, I think McCain can win. But the fact is, [if the] election were held today, he’d lose. And I think he’s on a losing path.
Murphy has advice for McCain about reaching out to the independents and finding a positive economic message, but that will be hard advice of McCain to take--at least he hasn't found a way to take it so far, and the election is a month away.
My sense is that McCain is still trying to respond to the state of the race in June. He was criticized during the long Dem primary for not getting covered by the media. He got some new advisors, like Rove protege Steve Schmidt, and since then his goal seems to be to dominate every news cycle. It worked for him for a while, but now voters seem to want some substance, and in particular, that positive economic message which--I think--is probably beyond McCain's power to deliver.
Let's keep throwing McCain-Palin anvils as the head down that path. And it doesn't hurt to look, sound and act confident. I know that is hard for Democrats, but an aura of confidence can be a selling point in itself.
Quick note: Rove is saying on Fox that his map has it Obama 273, McCain 163, toss-up 102. I don't have a link. Got it off the side-bar on Pollster.com. This would of course be a winner for us if we can hold it.
UPDATE: Here's a link to the MTP transcript. I haven't yet tracked down the video.