Sara Palin is going to Omaha for a personal appearance this week. OMAHA!
=EXCLAMATION POINT=
Obama HAS a plan. And despite all the ups and downs, we have to remember: there is a plan and strategy in place that has been well-thought out and is being implemented and rolled out methodically.
Daily events (OMG Caribou Barbie wore new glasses today! will we survive that?!) may nudge things at the corners here and there, but at the end of the day: what counts is who has the better ground game. Despite what Sara Palin's church may want others to believe: In the real world, math is a finite science.
Remember how the primary season was essentially decided in February?
Anything that Clinton desperately tried to roll out at the end didn't matter because it was mathematically impossible to reverse Obama's numbers unless she started flipping the supers.
Her campaign, like McCain's today, could fling all of the Ayers-Rezko-Wright ads that they wanted, but it's wasn't going to go back and undo Obama's ground game in the small states, the caucus states and in the states who weren't "winner take" all.
In 2004 I volunteered for the K-E campaign and worked myself to the bone. I'd start the day a few hours early, so that on my way to work I could do some visibility (nice speak for standing on a street corner with a sign) on a commuter bridge. After work, I'd put in another hour of visibility in downtown and then head straight to the K-E office for several hours of phone banking and then load up the car with lawn signs to distribute on the way home. As an afterthought, we were shown voter registration forms that were out on the table in the lobby. We could go out and find new voters on our own if we wanted, which I had found just a handful. But +3 or +4 is better than 0 more new dem voters or worse: a deficit of voters against the republican gains in voter registration.
Bush's presidency scared me out of "talking" about things and actually doing something: I took off from work and went to Iowa and knocked on doors in the primary. I logged hours and hours for K-E in my city. But I found my volunteering to be a little aimless.
I was trapped in a hopelessly red state and standing in commuter traffic 5 days a week didn't seem to be producing dividends, so why did the K-E campaign bother?
I was told that it was important so that they could compensate getting the highest vote count possible out in my blue district to offset republican gains elsewhere. In the end, it didn't really matter because losing is losing. The analysis of that loss is another diary for another day.
In as far as this excerise in 2004 was helpful: I was able to jump up into other local elections as somewhat of a veteran and help train other volunteers. But most importantly for me personally, I networked with other volunteers who shared my vision of a progressive and liberal agenda. I wasn't alone in my thoughts.
But How I wished that the K-E campaign had worked SMARTER. and not just harder. Yes, it was great to finally walk the walk in 2004 and no longer be a spectator.
So after reading my favorite fivethirtyeigth.com today, I can appreciate more and more Obama's well-thought out strategy both in the primary and now in the General:
Registering Voters + EV Math = Win. Wasting money on lawn signs and putting bodies on street corners = less bodies registering voters and less money for boots on the ground GOTV.
The key to all of this is being PREPARED and "doing the math" on the EV congretional district by congretional district. and Obama has hired the best bean counters to come up with the plan. He proved how much more invaluable that is, than staging photo ops at bars.
From 538's interview with Obama's field staff in Nebraska:
"a fascinating conversation about the innards of Democratic efforts in the state, the most overt goal being the attempt to win one single, solitary Electoral Vote in the second congressional district.
Only Nebraska and Maine divide their state electoral votes on a district-by-district basis rather than winner take all. For those who remember the proportional allocation of the Democratic delegate race during the nomination battle, Nebraska is significant because a wider statewide loss can be mitigated by strength in a particular area. Rather than lose 5-0, Obama could lose 4-1 and gain a 2 EV swing.
...Berge told us that we’d know if the Nebraska 2d congressional district internals had the McCain camp worried if we started seeing Republican surrogates in the area"
Sarah: WELCOME TO NEBRASKA!
538 goes on to report that Obama has opened up a SECOND field office in Nebraska.
We have a good candiate here folks.
link: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com