By Jwilkes from Eyes on Obama:
If Obama can manage to win just one of the eight states currently listed as "tossups," as well as all the other states in which he's currently leading by five points or more, he'll be guaranteed victory. Bad news for John McCain- Obama is currently leading in six of them.
What John McCain needs to do in order to win the White House is next to impossible. Today, just 30 days out from Election Day, there are eight states that fall into the "tossup" category, according to their RealClearPolitics poll averages:
North Carolina (15) Obama +0.5
Missouri (11) McCain +1.7
Nevada (5) Obama +1.8
Ohio (20) Obama +2.0
Indiana (11) McCain +2.2
Virginia (13) Obama +2.4
Florida (27) Obama +3.0
Colorado (9) Obama +4.4
As you can see, unfortunately for McCain, he’s losing in six of them- all of which went to George W. Bush not just in 2004, but in 2000 as well.
All other states sport a margin of at least five points in favor of one candidate or the other. Both Obama and McCain are highly unlikely to overcome five-point deficits at this stage in the election. That puts the score at 264 for Obama, 163 for McCain. 270 are needed to win the White House.
If Obama wins just one of the states listed above (even Nevada, which only has five electoral votes), he at the very least forces a tie, which sends the decision to the Democratically controlled Senate.* More than likely, however, Obama will win in Colorado, where the Intrade markets are giving him 70% odds of victory. If he does, he’ll bump up to 273, meaning that he can lose in every other state, and still end up in the Oval Office.
McCain will have to stage an incredible comeback on a massive, nationwide scale. He’s already being forced to concede states, pulling his staff and resources out of Michigan earlier this week. He can’t afford to concede any more.
Bit of a caveat: I’ve noticed that whenever we post statistical analyses that show good news for Obama, readers tend to submit comments indicating that they fear that information like this will lead Obama supporters to think that they don’t need to vote. However, the numbers you see here are entirely dependent upon the people who identify themselves as "likely voters" actually showing up to the polling places on Election Day. So remember: it’s still vitally important that people head out to the polls, and encourage others to do the same.
*Here’s an interesting tidbit- if indeed the unlikely were to occur and Obama were only to win Nevada out of those eight states listed above, the US would be set up for a constitutional crisis of unfathomable proportions. According to our founding document, a tie in presidential electoral votes goes directly to a Senate floor vote. But which Senate? The current one (110th), or the newly elected one that takes office in January (111th)? Constitutional scholars don’t necessarily agree. If it’s the latter, it’s good news for Obama- Demcorats will have a strong majority by then, and would send him into the White House without a problem. But if it’s the 110th that decide, that could spell disaster. Democrats do in fact control this Senate, but only by a single vote, and that decisive vote is Independent Joe Lieberman, who endorsed John McCain. That would render a 50-50 tie in the Senate, which would have to be broken by the President of the Senate...Dick Cheney. On the other side, the House decides the vice president in the event of a tie. So, however unlikely, it’s conceivable that you could end up with President John McCain and his number two, Vice President Joe Biden. How about that?
If you like EyesOnObama post, click here to read more of all our writers like The Bard and check back tomorrow for more of your favorite blogger Jwilkes
...
Copyright Eyesonobama.com