I was reading a Politico article Dems could hit 60 Senate seats. The article is fine, and details how we have a half-decent chance of getting to 60. (Fivethirtyeight gives us a ±20% chance of doing so.)
In the last line of the story, the quote a McCain aide saying:
“2010 looks pretty good for us to pick up three or four or five seats pretty easily,” the McCain official said.
Really? Let's take a look.
***EDIT: the weird symbol in the poll was supposed to be a π***
2010 is the reupping of the 2004 election. 2004, as you may remember, was not a particularly good year for the Democrats. Let's take a quick look at the senators in Class III (2010).
The Democrats have 15 seats to defend, and the Republicans have 19. So already the Democrats have more targets. In a historical perspective, this year the Democrats are redoing 2002, a really pretty awful year, and they only have 12 seats to defend to the Republicans' 21. In 2006, they were redoing 2000 — a so-so year — and won six seats. Of course, in 2012 the Dems will have — well — a lot of seats to defend. 22 plus Sanders and Lieberman (a target) to the Republicans' 9 (10 with Lieberman).
So already, we are beginning to disprove Mr Top McCain Official's theorem. But let's look at the races. First, to the Dems. I'll comment on each. Remember, a lot can change in two weeks, let alone two years. And midterms tend to go against the incumbent party. So take this all with a grain of salt.
Bayh (IN) — Safe Dem. Even in Indiana. If the Republicans can field a very good candidate and have a lot of money (neither are likely) they could try to mount a challenge. But with 15 seats to defend, it's not likely.
Boxer (CA) — Very Safe Dem. A blue Senator in a blue state.
Dodd (CT) — Very Safe Dem. Whenever you are a Veep hopeful in a very blue state about to lose the last Republican house member in New England (we hope), you are fine.
Dorgan (ND) — Safe Dem. It's a red state, but he's quite popular.
Feingold (WI) — Safe Dem. Only because he's never won any race big. More likely, he'll win 55-45 again after the Republicans throw a lot of money at the race.
Inouye (HI) — Likely Dem. Likely to retire. Inouye will be 86 in 2010. Of course, with his seniority he might be enjoying being in the majority. Linda Lingle (R-Gov) would be a formidable challenger, especially in an open race, but this is a Democratic state no matter.
Leahy (VT) — Very Safe Dem. If he runs, he wins. (Unless Vermont secedes — President Sanders, VP Dean, Sec. of State Leahy.)
Lincoln (AR) — Likely Dem. She won in 2004 by 12 points, but this is a state which votes, at least at the top of the ticket, for Republicans. However, there is a strong Democratic party, so unless there is a strong challenge, she should be okay.
Milkulski (MD) — Very Safe Dem. Long-serving, popular Dem.
Murray (WA) — Likely Dem. In a good Republican year, a strong Republican could make this a race.
??? (IL) — Likely Dem. Some guy called Obama is running for president. Not safe because who knows who'll replace him. But in Illinois — likely.
Reid (NV) — Safe Dem. Won't be Daschled.
Salazar (CO) — Likely Dem. A strong Republican could make it a race but Oregon is trending Democratic and Latino.
Schumer (NY) — Very Safe Dem. DSCC Chair, New York, etc. Safe.
Wyden (OR) — Safe Dem. Verging on very safe.
The count is:
5 Very Safe
5 Safe
5 Likely
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Now on to the Republicans. They have 19 seats to defend.
Bennett (UT) — Very Safe Rep. It's Utah.
Bond (MO) — Safe Rep. In a good Dem year they could make a run at this seat (he won by 14 in a Republican year) but there are likely better targets.
Open [Brownback] (KS) — Toss up. This would be likely Republican except that the very popular Governor Sebelius is likely eying the seat. If she runs, she probably wins.
Bunning (KY) — Lean Rep. Bunning, who was senile in 2004. If he retires, it leans Republican (based on being Kentucky). If he runs, it is a toss-up. We'll have it as lean.
Burr (NC) — Toss up. This is optimistic, but he is a freshman who barely won in a strong Republican year. Considering what is happening in NC with Hagan and Obama, he could be taken down.
Coburn (OK) — Likely Rep. The guy's a nut, but so are the majority of voters in Oklahoma it seems. Still, he's a freshman who won with 53% of the vote.
Crapo (ID) — Very Safe Rep. He went unchallenged in 2004. In Idaho. Too bad, the first four letters of his name are about what I think of him.
DeMint (SC) — Likely Rep. The guy's a nut. But he only won by about 8% in 2004. But it is South Carolina.
Grassley (IA) — Safe Rep. He's very popular. However, Iowa is trending very Democratic. There's a chance the Dems could go for a knockout, but it's not likely.
Gregg (NH) — Lean Rep. New Hampshire has trended blue enough that Paul Hodes could easily make this a race. It might actually be a toss up considering what happened in New England since 2004. He is rather popular, but New Hampshire is moving fast.
Isakson (GA) — Safe Rep. Only because it is Georgia.
Martinez (FL) — Lean Rep. Only because of incumbency. He barely won in a Republican year.
McCain (AZ) — Likely Rep. I'll keep it at that because I have no idea what will happen here. First of all, this is all moot if McCain wins, but that looks less and less likely with less than a month to go. If he loses — does he go back to the Senate? Will he be damaged goods from a horrid campaign? Will he retire? It seems likely. Until I know more, though.
Murkowski (AK) — Lean Rep. She's corrupt as usual and barely won in 2004. Palin might run for this if she loses (likely) and can get mooseburgers in DC (less likely). Could it mean more Tina Fey?
Shelby (AL) — Very Safe Rep. It's Alabama.
Specter (PA) — Toss Up. He'll be 80 in 2010. He has health problems. The Wingers hate him. He may well retire. If he does, this is Lean Dem. He may be primaried, in which it would Lean Dem. If he runs, it's Lean Rep. Maybe this should be a toss-up.
Thune (SD) — Likely Rep. Herseth could make this a race, as Thune is a freshman who barely won (beating Daschle). Of course, this is South Dakota, and a friend from there says Thune fits the state "very well."
Vitter (LA) — Lean Rep. Hoo hah. Vitter has a lot of baggage. Bobby Jindal wins if he runs. If he doesn't, who the hell knows.
Voinovich (OH) — Lean Rep. He's not very popular and Ohio is a swing state. A strong candidate definitely makes this a race.
And the count:
Very Safe Rep: 3
Safe Rep: 3
Likely Rep: 4
Lean Rep: 6
Toss up: 3
********************
Now, let's rehash the quote from the Politico article:
“2010 looks pretty good for us to pick up three or four or five seats pretty easily,” the McCain official said.
On what planet is this guy living? They'd have to run the table in Hawaii if Inouye retires, Lincoln, Murray and Salazar (all close states), try to win in Illinois, or go after Dorgan or something. Unless the Democrats have a horrid two years, this is very unlikely.
Now let's do some fuzzy math. Suppose that a party has a 50% chance of keeping a tossup, 65% chance to win a lean, 80% chance to win a likely, 95% chance to win a safe, and 98% chance to win a very safe. For the Democrats, this equals, from their 15 seats, 13.65 D - 1.35 R. Now for the Republicans, the same equation equals 14.4 R - 4.6 D.
Now we simply add those together and find out that, according to this (non)expert analysis, the Democrats are likely to gain three seats in 2010. (19R-15D becoming 18D-16R). That IS change we can believe in. And this McCain official, well he may have his math, but I have the math.
(Oh and by the way, this could get us to 61-63 Dems, which would render Lieberman irrelevant.)