There are many things that can be read out of the current electoral map projections. Some see a forming landslide, I see a strong yet tenuous lead for Obama. There is however one thing most people agree on : McCain's weakness in former replublican strongholds.Whether they're toss-ups or leaning McCain , the simple fact he has to defend states like Indiana or North Carolina puts him in a very uncomfortable position and is the real reason why he will face an uphill battle over the next 4 weeks.That's why Sarah Palin will be playing a crucial and probably most important role in this final phase of the campaign.
Palin's new role in the campaign has started after the VP debate and it's a quite simple one: She has to secure the states Bush won . Some have been wondering whether her recent attacks on Obama will not turn away some independants,but she could less about independants right now. She is speaking to the republican base ,the "wingnuts" and the "one issue voters".McCain himself will try to appeal to the independants.
The lack of enthusiasm among those voters Palin is trying to appeal to is the main reason why McCain is in trouble in some red states.If she succeeds in getting Bush-voters on board, and there's no reason why she wouldn't succeed since they adore her, you won't see any competitive race in Georgia,Indiana,Montana,or North Carolina.
McCain has pretty much given up on Kerry states. His goal is to win Florida and Ohio and prevent Obama from adding Colorado and NM to his count.It's an uphill battle indeed but if Palin delivers, it's still realistic.
Anyway, In 4 weeks anything can happen. We still have one debate,the national trend shows that the polls are tightening, which, as it always does, will influence the state polls .Obama is the favorite, but the race is still wide open.