The following is my preview of the ALCS and NLCS, which begin later this week. Call this a nice break from the political grind as we discuss and enjoy America's pastime.
You can see my preliminary predictions in this diary: October Fun: MLB Playoff Preview. I did okay in the first round, getting all the series right except, sigh, the Cubs, who even though I am a Mariners fan I wanted to see win.
ALCS:
#2 Tampa Bay Rays (97-65)
AL East Champs
Stat Ranks: Run Scored (12th), ERA (3rd)
Strength: Winning close games.
Weakness: Hitting with RISP and lack of experience.
vs.
#4 Boston Red Sox (95-67)
Al Wild Card.
Stat Ranks: Runs Scored (3rd), ERA (9th).
Strength: Boston's Offense and Bullpen.
Weakness: Injuries, Lowell will not play in this series and Boston's starting rotation is battling injuries as well.
Season Series: TB 10-8.
Series Scorecard:
Offense-Even without Rays Killer Lowell who hit 3 HRs against them this year, the Boston Red Sox have one of the best offenses in MLB. Tampa's offense seems to just enough to win but if this comes down to a slug-fest, there is little question which team will win. Advantage: Boston.
Defense-Particularly on the infield, there is little question that this is a strength for Tampa. Boston's outfield, led by Madras, OR's Jacoby Ellsbury, is solid but overall their defense is definitely weaker. Advantage: Tampa.
Pitching-If Beckett is healthy he is without a doubt one of the best starters in post-season history. Papelbon, as well, has been as solid as one can hope for in a closer, still yet to give up a run in post-season play. Despite that, Tampa's pitching staff, especially its bullpen, is deeper, so slight edge to them. Advantage: Tampa.
Manager-There is little doubt that Joe Maddon is Manager of the Year for getting the Rays even to the playoffs. Despite that, Terry Francona gets the edge here because he's been there and won before. Advantage: Boston.
Intangibles-The Rays have absolutely nothing to lose but the defending champ Red Sox know how to win in the post-season and likely will. Advantage: Boston.
Prediction: Boston in 7-A very closely fought series, as were many of their games this year, but in the end Boston will win out.
NLCS:
#2 Philadelphia Phillies (92-75)
NL East Champs
Stat Ranks: Runs Scored (8th), ERA (6th)
Strength: Hitting HRs, Bullpen.
Weakness: Hitting for average, the Phillies need to hit a lot of HRs if they want to win.
vs.
#3 LA Dodgers (84-78)
NL West Champs
Stat Ranks: Runs Scored (23rd), ERA (2nd)
Strength: ManRam, Joe Torre.
Weakness: Decidedly average play for much of the year.
Season Series: 4-4.
Series Scorecard:
Offense-If you are looking for a HR fest, the Phillies are most definitely your team. If you are, on the other hand, looking for an all-around balanced offense, the edge goes to LA. In the playoffs, the ability to get key hits is the most important factor, and LA clearly has the edge here. Advantage: LA.
Defense-LA's defense isn't bad, especially catcher Russell Martin. However, Philadelphia's defense is perhaps about the best in MLB, so a big edge to them here. Advantage: Philly.
Pitching-I like Jamie Moyer and Cole Hammels a lot, but beyond them and closer Brad Lidge, Philly's pitching staff leaves much to be desired. LA's staff, on the other hand, led by Derek Lowe, who has been perfect as a closer this year, is deeper and a little better. Advantage: LA.
Manager-This one is not even close. Joe Torre is one of the best playoff managers in MLB history. I know his Yankee's teams lost the last couple times but the guy won 4 WS titles, hard to argue with that. Advantage: LA.
Intangibles-Even since acquiring ManRam mid-season, LA has taken off. They clearly have the momentum going into this series, although Philly did pretty well to close the year too. Advantage: LA.
Prediction-LA in 6. LA is on a roll and appears destined for a date with the Red Sox in this year's fall classic.
World Series Prediction-Red Sox in 7. After a closely fought series, the Sox will emerge with back to back championships, and their third since 2004.
Let me know what you think.