November 4, 2008, could be an early night. In fact, the election could be decided long before the polls even close on the west coast. Follow me over the bump for the details.
Using Pollster.com's averages, the DailyKos scoreboard, and some rudimentary math, Barack Obama could be on the verge of the White House before he leaves the central time zone on election eve.
First, let's look at the Pollster.com map to get a general idea of where I'm coming from. Obviously, the numbers look great for Obama, but a little closer scrutiny shows just how great. Here are the Obama states that lie East of the Mississippi:
Maine
New Hampshire
Vermont
New York
Pennsylvania
Massachusetts
Rhode Island
Connecticut
New Jersey
Delaware
Maryland
Washington D.C.
Florida
Ohio
Michigan
Wisconsin
Illinois
These states alone total 212 of the 270 electoral votes needed. Adding Iowa's seven and Minnesota's ten bring Obama's total to 229 leaving him just 41 votes shy of the mark.
But let's look at the trends in some of those toss-up states. Starting with Virginia. All of the recent polling shows Obama leading in Virginia so we'll add Virginia's thirteen votes to Obama's total bringing him to 242. Only twenty-eight to go.
Next, let's look at North Carolina. If the trend continues along it's current path, that's another fifteen votes bringing Obama's total to a robust 257. Just thirteen to go.
And finally, and this may be reaching but I don't think it's a reach too far, take a look at Indiana. Now Indiana's clearly a longer shot than North Carolina or Virginia, but the trends are definitely in Obama's favor. And where was the good Senator today? Uh huh... Indiana so he clearly thinks he's got a shot here. If Indiana goes blue this November adding it's eleven votes to Obama's total it brings us to the tantalizingly-close total of 268. And we are still in the Central Time Zone.
Obviously, any of the mountain states would put Obama over the top and into the White House. But the race would essentially be over before we even hear from California, Oregon, or Washington, let alone Alaska and Hawaii. Thus bringing me to a very interesting question: How long has it been since the Democratic party was in a position where they could claim that California wasn't a must-win state?