With all the talk of tightening in the polls, I have several friends freaking out, popping antacids and losing sleep in these last days. I have tried to calm them down by pragmatically breaking down very simple mathmatics....
I'm not being overconfident because there is always the human component which seems to screw things up, but there is a science and probablilities and we're looking better as we get closer to Tuesday....
The Democrats have the wind to their backs all over the country, this doesn't mean we get complacent and not vote, as the matter of fact we surge foward breaking holes in every levee the GOP is frantically trying to hold. This is the "sleeping Giant effect" that we are seeing all over the country with a very energized Democratic base. Obama is campaigning in red states which means his internal polling (which is much more mircoscopic than what we are seeing) must show some comfort levels for Obama to go after McCain on his own turf (just take a look at Arizona).
Secondly, new voter registration heavily favors the Democrats in just about every web search I have surfed. This means the polling data that we are seeing may not even reflect new voters. Furthermore, this also means that whenever you see a polling number with "tightening" in races through percentages. Exponentially taking a state like Florida for example where the Democrats have registered 600,00 new voters over the Republicans. The estimated total amount of Registered voters in Florida is somewhere around 8,786,377 means that the Democrats have a 6.8% advantage. So when you see an estimated difference of 2.7% in the polls in Florida this means Obama has an 237,232 head count advantage which may not include a significant percentage of these 6.8% of new voters that may not have been polled. So when you see Gallup use three models in their polls, I would have to give margins of error in favor of the Democrats. Republicans may very well have to make up a few hundred thousand voters to catch Obama in this state. Note* Gallup's "expanded" likely voter model determines likely voters based only on current voting intentions. This estimate would take into account higher turnout among groups of voters traditionally less likely to vote, such as young adults and minorities. So far in Florida minorities are turning out in record numbers and the youth turnout is yet to be seen. The 300,000 may be a conservative number if youth turnout is heavy tuesday.
Finally we have to look at voter enthusiasm and enthusiasm gaps which can also account for voter turnout. The reason why campaigns go negative, to lower the enthusiam in the opponents base. It's psychological warfare targeted to tear down the opponents base, tighten the numbers, and discourage voters from going to the polls. It doensn't seem to be working given McCain's ceiling of around 45 to 46% and Obama holding steadily at around 49-51%. This should and is a red flag to the GOP. This is why we are seeing so many defections in their ranks, especially in their moderates. Palin boosted the hard right base but sank the moderate base who may not turn out in big numbers....
October 26, 2008 Obama drew 45,000 in New Mexico while McCain drew 1,000 One of the reasons and theories I have in regards to local election coverage versus national coverage show up in the state polling. The national media (ABC, CBS, and NBC) always show angles that present both canidates equally. They don't really go over head counts in the reporting. Local media does cover these numbers as did all three stations did in New Mexico. I suspect this is why we see the states models not effected as much as national models. Local media coverage tends to be better and the saying "politics is local" applies to the electorate math where Obama seems to be holding and or gaining.....
Given that Pennsylvania, Ohio, Virginia, New Mexico are all ran by Democrats, we can assume these elections will be fair and every voter is counted. Keep an eye on these states. I also suspect that Florida voting will be counted much better than the past. I believe they have a paper system. If Florida goes blue along with North Carolina early on in the night, the GOP will be going to bed early sulking theirselves to sleep.
I still don't trust the integrity of the vote in Florida, but I'm crossing my fingers given that Govenor Crist extended the voting hours which didn't put too many smiles on Republican faces with this decision.
Keep fighting for every single voter until the polls close, we have the numbers and enthusiasm to take our country back. Let's close the deal!!!