I am writing this diary to try to alleviate all the fear and paranoia associated with the typical neurotic democrat who is in total denial of a huge victory in the presidential election that hasn’t been seen since 1964.
The campaign has been long and hard fought on both sides, but Americans one by one are making up their minds as the day of reckoning approaches. Both campaigns have spun their take on the race with help from their surrogates. The Dems have MSNBC, Daily Kos, Stephanie Miller, Bill Press, Ed Shultz, Randi Rhodes and Huffington Post versus the Right wing noise machine of Fox News, Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity, Glenn Beck and Free Republic. Both sides are claiming they are head or closing on the polls, but the real truth can only be recognized by looking at the hard numbers.
It’s time to look at the polls and I feel that the best is pollster.com, they methodology and attention to detail is awesome. The pollster takes on the polls for national and state elections and performs various statistically analysis with user friendly graphics that can be imbedded in the DKos diaries. I want to look at the national election first and than look state by state at the battlegrounds to access the situation. We will look at the national election in two ways, one is with the default setting on the data that gives a longer term overview of the polls and than the second way will be to turn up the sensitivity to track the most recent movements in the polls.
Obama has a solid total of 264 electoral votes versus McCains 129 electoral votes. This is a hugh advantage and leaves McCain very few options. Watch for the early polls if Virginia is called for Obama its going to be a long night for McCain and festive night for the Dems!
Below is the current national pollster poll, Obama is above 50% and McCain is below 45%. McCain has been unable to get above 45% since the end of the Republican convention and the Palin bounce.
<script></script>
Below is the national pollster poll with the sensitivity turned up shows Obama is up and McCain is up and it appears the independents are breaking 50-50. I have the sensitivity turned up to show the latest micro trends and it is trending well for Obama as Americans begin to make up their minds and the race solidfies.
<script></script>
Well as we can see Obama holds at least a 6 – 7 point lead national, this could increase depending on how the independents break. Now we can look at the states the first one is Virginia where Obama is up over 50% plus an almost 7 point advantage.
<script></script>
Colorado is next and again Obama is well over 50% and has a 7 point lead and the momentum is going all his way.
<script></script>
Nevada is also over 50% and has a 6 point lead with the mojo in his direction.
<script></script>
Finally, in Ohio Obama is just below 50% but has a 6 point lead and again the mojo!
<script></script>
In conclusion, the tosses up states are as follows per the pollster: NC 48.5-46.7 / FL 47.7-45.1 / MO 48.6-46.7. That’s say Obama loses the toss ups, but wins all the states where he is up by 50.
The total is 318 to 220 and I believe that is being conservative, so everyone just relax and get yourself a pizza, wings, lobster, lasagna, etc with your favorite beverage and enjoy the election show on Tuesday night.
Continue to monitor pollster.com and ignore the Drudge Report, check in on the Freepers to watch the meltdown!