Here are my predictions for the upcoming election. This is my last diary before Weds., Nov 5th as I'll be out GOTV'ing all day today and tomorrow here in Raleigh, NC.
Combining national polling trends, state trends, and my intuition from talking to Obama organizers in VA, OH, NC, MO, and FL...
Safe O: HI, CA, OR, WA, NM, IL, MI, MN, IA, WI, NY, VT, RI, DE, ME, CT, MA, DC, NJ, MD = 239 EV
Likely O: PA, VA, NH, CO = 47 EV
Swing O:
NC, GA, FL (Massive ground game + record A-A turnout + Early-vote)
NV (Massive ground game + Latino support + Early-vote)
MO (Massive ground game + A-A and youth turnout)
IN (Massive ground game from IL spilling over + discontentment with Bush)
OH (Massive ground game + A-A turnout)
MT (Thank you Ron Paul)
ND, AZ, NE - 02 (McCain sucks)
= 121 EV
OBAMA = 407 EV
McCain: ID, UT, WY, SD, NE, KS, OK, TX, LA, MS, AL, AR, MS, SC, TN, KY, WV = 131 EV
Dems pick up 8 seats in the Senate winning in GA but narrowly losing in MN for a total of 59-41
Now it's time to canvass.