For three days now, Obama has been 5 points ahead of McCain in Rasmussen's Daily Tracking Poll. As someone noted below (h/t drowner1), this is not their final tracker - they have on elast one tomorrow. So, consider this tracker the final one before voting begins. ;-)
Today he's moved up a notch to 6:
On Monday, the final full day of campaigning for Election 2008, the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll shows Barack Obama with 52% of the vote while John McCain is six points back at 46%. That’s up a single point for Obama from his 51% to 46% advantage yesterday. There is just one more night of tracking and our final results for Election 2008 will be published here tomorrow morning at 9:30 a.m. Eastern.
More below the fold...
Nothing McCain has done seems to have worked:
Unless McCain pulls off a stunning comeback, history will note the final two weeks of September as the decisive and defining moment of this campaign. On September 14, the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll showed McCain up by three points. Then, Lehman Brothers collapsed and the Wall Street debacle began. McCain’s lead disappeared almost immediately. By September 26, Obama reached the 50% level of support and was ahead by five percentage points.
The Democratic nominee never let go of that lead. Today is the 39th straight day that Obama’s support has stayed between 50% and 52%. Only once during that entire time did his lead fall below four points and it occasionally expanded to eight (see trends).
For the in the Electoral College projections:
In the Electoral College projections, Rasmussen Reports now shows Obama leading 260 to 160. When states that are leaning in one way or the other are included, Obama leads 313 to 160. A total of 270 Electoral College votes are needed for victory.
Also, did anyone get to see This Week on ABC yesterday morning? It was really stunning as ALL the pundicks agreed: Obama is going to win in a blowout. Via ABC's This Week:
Mark Halperin, Time Magazine:
Electoral Vote -- 349 Obama
Senate -- 59 Democratic seats
House -- Democrats net 28 House seats
Matthew Dowd, former Republican strategist:
Electoral Vote -- 338 plus Obama
Senate -- 8 plus pick up for Democrats
House -- 17 plus pickup for Democrats
George Will, ABC News contributor:
Electoral Vote -- 378 Obama
Senate -- 8 pickups for the Democrats
House -- 21 pickups for the Democrats
Donna Brazile, former Democratic strategist:
Electoral Vote -- Obama 343
Senate - Democrats 59 plus runoff
House - Democrats pickup 29
George Stephanopoulos:
Electoral Vote -- 353 Obama
Senate -- 58, or 59 if there's a run-off in Georgia.
House -- 264 House Democrats (+28)
Here's the video (h/t Scarce):
ADDED BONUS:
Check out Chuck Todd telling Tom Brokaw that even if McCain wins PA, FL AND OH, he loses!
UPDATE II - Round upfrom TPM:
Quinnipiac: Obama Ahead in Big Three
The final Quinnipiac polls of the largest three swing states give Barack Obama stable leads of various margins: Obama ahead by two points in Florida, 47%-45%, unchanged from a week ago; Obama ahead by seven points in Ohio, 50%-43, compared to a 51%-42% lead a week ago; and Obama up by ten points in Pennsylvania, 52%-42%, compared to a 53%-41% lead a week ago. The poll of Florida has a ±2.3% margin of error, and the polls of Ohio and Pennsylvania have a ±2.5% margin of error.
PPP Also Shows Obama Ahead In Big Three
The new state polls from Public Policy Polling also paint a cautiously optimistic picture for Obama in the Big Three: Obama ahead by two points in Florida, 50%-48%, compared to a 48%-47% Obama edge two weeks ago; Obama ahead two points in Ohio, 50%-48%, compared to a 51%-44% Obama lead a week and a half ago; and Obama up by eight points in Pennsylvania, 53%-45%, with no prior PPP survey for comparison. The margins of error are ±2.4% in Florida, ±2.8% in Ohio, and ±2.5%.
Also from TPM, a look into the numbers from NBC's latest poll that shows that all of McCain's attacks have failed:
Poll: McCain's Attacks On Obama Completely Flopped
By Greg Sargent - November 3, 2008, 9:53AM
Some interesting numbers from the internals of the new NBC/WSJ poll illustrate as clearly as you could want that every one of McCain's major attack lines has been a complete flop:
* Despite months of attacks on Obama's allegedly sinister background and cultural identity, a solid majority of likely voters, 57%, say that Obama has a background and set of values they can identify with, versus only 39% who say he doesn't. Those numbers are virtually identical to McCain's, which are 57%-38%
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