Welcome to the Election 2008 Live Blogging Project.
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MN-SEN
Topline numbers:
What a surprise, Obama wins Minnesota The big race is the Senate.
MN-Pres - 0% reporting |
Barack Obama (DFL): 0 | | |
John McCain (R): 0 | | |
Jump to:
2004 map results
2004 and 2008 county chart
A poll
More below the fold...
Here is the Great Orange Satan's nifty mapping project (I'll load it later)...
7:30 CST: Things look good as far as other states. And I just popped open my first can of Surly. If BHO takes Ind. or Va. before the liquor stores close, I'm off to buy champagne...
6:50 CST: This thread in the comments is fun — we turned out a vote. Now if Franken wins by a vote, you know who to thank!
6:00 CST: Some observations from voting today:
• The weather today was fine, statewide. Near record heat had us around 70°, so just a beautiful Indian Summer day.
• As usual, voting went smoothly in Minnesota. Minnesota has, for a long time, been a bastion of voter rights. We have day-of registration which is fantastic, and after beating back a horrid SOS a few years ago, who tried to disenfranchise students and Native Americans, have good laws. It's illegal to challenge voters without cause, etc. And polling, by most accounts, has gone well.
• Obama should win this; if it's not called by 8:15 it will be surprising. The Senate race could go all night.
More a bit later. GOBAMA!
Here is a nifty current map (which won't show anything for a while):
For comparison, here is the 2004 map.
Democrats win Minnesota in basically three counties:
• Ramsey County, home of Saint Paul. It has 500,000 people, about 10% of the state, and is reliably Democratic. It is basically congruent with CD-4, which has a CPVI of +13, and went to Kerry 63-36.
• Hennepin County, home to Minneapolis. It has 1.1m people, about 22% of the state, and is home to CDs 5 and 3. CD-5 is Keith Ellison's district, he of Muslim fame (his constituents could care less), and is CPVI D+21. Then there's MN-3, a very hot race (with a separate liveblog, remind me to link it if I do not) that is a CPVI of R+1. The county went 59-39 for Kerry.
• The Iron Range, mainly Saint Louis County, home to Duluth. This, according to John McCain, is "Real Minnesota." So real that Saint Louis County went 65-35 to Kerry. This is heavily union and industrial with iron mining, and good, strong DFL country.
So the Democrats run up the score in these three regions. Most of the rest of the people in Minnesota live in the Twin Cities suburbs; the rural areas split rather evenly with a slight Republican tilt. The suburbs are changing and have likely become less Republican since 2004; the Democrats have turned a 68-66 house deficit in Minnesota in to an 85-49 majority, no small thanks to these suburban voters. Are there hardcore Republicans? Yes, many. But unless the suburbs turn a deep red, John McCain has little chance to raise much ruckus in Minnesota.
There are various bellwethers in the state, and as counties come in we'll compare the tallies of 2008 and 2004 below to see trends. I've sorted by county because, heck, as much as we like the names of counties like Koochiching and Lac Qui Parle and Mille Lacs (pronounced Muh-Lacks), the bigger counties contain a few more votes. I won't post until results are 100% in — or close. For sanity's sake.
Oh, and there is a poll below...
County | Pop 00 | DFL 04 | R 04 | DFL 04% | | DFL 08 | R 08 |
Hennepin | 1116200 | 383841 | 255133 | 60.1% | | | |
Ramsey | 511035 | 171846 | 97096 | 63.9% | | | |
Dakota | 355904 | 104635 | 108959 | 49.0% | | | |
Anoka | 298084 | 80226 | 91853 | 46.6% | | | |
Washington | 201130 | 61395 | 65751 | 48.3% | | | |
St. Louis | 200528 | 77958 | 40112 | 66.0% | | | |
Stearns | 133166 | 32659 | 41726 | 43.9% | | | |
Olmsted | 124277 | 33285 | 37371 | 47.1% | | | |
Wright | 89986 | 22618 | 36176 | 38.5% | | | |
Scott | 89498 | 23958 | 36055 | 39.9% | | | |
Carver | 70205 | 16456 | 28510 | 36.6% | | | |
Sherburne | 64417 | 15816 | 25182 | 38.6% | | | |
Otter Tail | 57159 | 12038 | 19734 | 37.9% | | | |
Rice | 56665 | 16425 | 13881 | 54.2% | | | |
Blue Earth | 55941 | 16865 | 15737 | 51.7% | | | |
Crow Wing | 55099 | 14005 | 19106 | 42.3% | | | |
Clay | 51229 | 12989 | 14365 | 47.5% | | | |
Winona | 49985 | 14231 | 12686 | 52.9% | | | |
Goodhue | 44127 | 12103 | 13134 | 48.0% | | | |
Itasca | 43992 | 13290 | 10705 | 55.4% | | | |
Kandiyohi | 41203 | 9337 | 11704 | 44.4% | | | |
Chisago | 41101 | 12219 | 15705 | 43.8% | | | |
Beltrami | 39650 | 10592 | 10237 | 50.9% | | | |
Mower | 38603 | 12334 | 7591 | 61.9% | | | |
McLeod | 34898 | 6712 | 11407 | 37.0% | | | |
Benton | 34226 | 8059 | 10043 | 44.5% | | | |
Steele | 33680 | 7994 | 10389 | 43.5% | | | |
Douglas | 32821 | 8219 | 11793 | 41.1% | | | |
Freeborn | 32584 | 9733 | 7681 | 55.9% | | | |
Morrison | 31712 | 6794 | 9698 | 41.2% | | | |
Carlton | 31671 | 11462 | 6642 | 63.3% | | | |
Polk | 31369 | 6729 | 8724 | 43.5% | | | |
Isanti | 31287 | 7883 | 11190 | 41.3% | | | |
Becker | 30000 | 6756 | 9795 | 40.8% | | | |
Nicollet | 29771 | 8797 | 8689 | 50.3% | | | |
Cass | 27150 | 6835 | 8875 | 43.5% | | | |
Brown | 26911 | 5158 | 8395 | 38.1% | | | |
Pine | 26530 | 7228 | 7033 | 50.7% | | | |
Le Sueur | 25426 | 6466 | 7746 | 45.5% | | | |
Lyon | 25425 | 5292 | 7203 | 42.4% | | | |
Todd | 24426 | 5034 | 6945 | 42.0% | | | |
Meeker | 22644 | 5292 | 6854 | 43.6% | | | |
Mille Lacs | 22330 | 5677 | 7194 | 44.1% | | | |
Martin | 21802 | 4590 | 6311 | 42.1% | | | |
Wabasha | 21610 | 5548 | 6120 | 47.5% | | | |
Fillmore | 21122 | 5825 | 5694 | 50.6% | | | |
Nobles | 20832 | 3898 | 5159 | 43.0% | | | |
Houston | 19718 | 5276 | 5631 | 48.4% | | | |
Waseca | 19526 | 4179 | 5457 | 43.4% | | | |
Hubbard | 18376 | 4741 | 6444 | 42.4% | | | |
Dodge | 17731 | 4117 | 5593 | 42.4% | | | |
Renville | 17154 | 3787 | 4430 | 46.1% | | | |
Redwood | 16815 | 3104 | 4898 | 38.8% | | | |
Roseau | 16338 | 2442 | 5355 | 31.3% | | | |
Faribault | 16181 | 3767 | 4794 | 44.0% | | | |
Sibley | 15356 | 3109 | 4669 | 40.0% | | | |
Aitkin | 15301 | 4539 | 4768 | 48.8% | | | |
Kanabec | 14996 | 3592 | 4527 | 44.2% | | | |
Koochiching | 14355 | 3662 | 3539 | 50.9% | | | |
Wadena | 13713 | 2791 | 4214 | 39.8% | | | |
Pennington | 13584 | 3117 | 3767 | 45.3% | | | |
Chippewa | 13088 | 3424 | 3089 | 52.6% | | | |
Cottonwood | 12167 | 2726 | 3557 | 43.4% | | | |
Swift | 11956 | 3165 | 2481 | 56.1% | | | |
Watonwan | 11876 | 2514 | 2970 | 45.8% | | | |
Jackson | 11268 | 2652 | 3024 | 46.7% | | | |
Pope | 11236 | 3301 | 3303 | 50.0% | | | |
Yellow Medicine | 11080 | 2799 | 2878 | 49.3% | | | |
Lake | 11058 | 4212 | 2769 | 60.3% | | | |
Marshall | 10155 | 2308 | 3187 | 42.0% | | | |
Stevens | 10053 | 2821 | 3030 | 48.2% | | | |
Pipestone | 9895 | 1900 | 3066 | 38.3% | | | |
Rock | 9721 | 2000 | 3111 | 39.1% | | | |
Murray | 9165 | 2218 | 2719 | 44.9% | | | |
Clearwater | 8423 | 1871 | 2438 | 43.4% | | | |
Lac qui Parle | 8067 | 2390 | 2093 | 53.3% | | | |
Norman | 7442 | 1954 | 1794 | 52.1% | | | |
Wilkin | 7138 | 1169 | 2303 | 33.7% | | | |
Lincoln | 6429 | 1558 | 1736 | 47.3% | | | |
Grant | 6289 | 1856 | 1893 | 49.5% | | | |
Big Stone | 5820 | 1536 | 1483 | 50.9% | | | |
Kittson | 5285 | 1333 | 1307 | 50.5% | | | |
Mahnomen | 5190 | 1339 | 1132 | 54.2% | | | |
Cook | 5168 | 1733 | 1489 | 53.8% | | | |
Lake of the Woods | 4522 | 921 | 1428 | 39.2% | | | |
Red Lake | 4299 | 963 | 1164 | 45.3% | | | |
Traverse | 4134 | 1026 | 1076 | 48.8% | | | |
Hey unless you are a troll the first few poll numbers are MINUS for OBAMA meaning McCain wins. Just FYI.