Of course the sexy part of President-Elect Obama's victory was seeing so many red states from 2000 and 2004 turn blue. He could have won with just Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado or Virginia, but that wouldn't have been nearly so sweet. It is, in fact, difficult to say which formerly red state was the most gratifying to see shaded blue.
Florida turning blue is cathartic for all Democrats who suffered through the 2000 debacle. Ohio for similar, if less visceral reasons, and to emphasize just how stupid that Joe-the-Plumber nonsense was. Virginia has personal resonance for me, having lived there through the 2004 election, when it was a major disappointment. North Carolina, if the results hold, offers a further beachhead for Democratic inroads in the South. Iowa is a welcome consolidation of the blue Midwest. Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada reflect the new blue power in the West; as those states gain electoral votes, the map is going to look uglier and uglier for Republicans. I think Arizona would be blue if its native son had not been on the Republican ticket. And some will be most satisfied by the unlikely victory in Indiana, a state that went to George Bush by 21% just four years ago.
That's a lot of states that have turned blue since 2004. But take a moment and look at just how blue some of them turned. It looks like the popular vote victory will be around 6%, which is D+8 from 2004. Note how many of these formerly red states went even further blue than that. That's the really remarkable story here, and shows why this was a) a blowout and b) a sign of bad things for Republicans in 2012:
Florida
- Obama 51 - McCain 48
- Bush 52 - Kerry 47
Difference: D+7
Ohio
- Obama 51 - McCain 47
- Bush 51 - Kerry 49
Difference: D+6
Virginia
- Obama 52 - McCain 47
- Bush 54 - Kerry 46
Difference: D+13
North Carolina
- Obama 50 - McCain 50
- Bush 56 - Kerry 44
Difference: D+12
Iowa
- Obama 54 - McCain 45
- Bush 50 - Kerry 49
Difference: D+10
New Mexico
- Obama 57 - McCain 42
- Bush 50 - Kerry 49
Difference: D+16
Colorado
- Obama 53 - McCain 46
- Bush 52 - Kerry 47
Difference: D+12
Nevada
- Obama 55 - McCain 43
- Bush 50 - Kerry 48
Difference: D+14
Indiana
- Obama 50 - McCain 49
- Bush 60 - Kerry 39
Difference: D+22
That's not the whole story, however. There are also a number of states that were light blue in 2004 that are now a very dark blue. In other words, these are states that Bush actually contested, and which McCain might have hoped to pick off. They are going to look awfully frightening for Republicans come 2012. Note how most also ran at or ahead of the D+8 national trend. The most obvious, and most satisfying, is Pennsylvania:
Pennsylvania
- Obama 55 - McCain 44
- Kerry 51 - Bush 48
Difference: D+8
New Hampshire
- Obama 55 - McCain 44
- Kerry 50 - Bush 49
Difference: D+10
Wisconsin
- Obama 56 - McCain 43
- Kerry 50 - Bush 49
Difference: D+12
Minnesota
- Obama 54 - McCain 44
- Kerry 51 - Bush 48
Difference: D+7
Michigan
- Obama 57 - McCain 41
- Kerry 51 - Bush 48
Difference: D+13
There are other examples, but these are the most important. What the Democrats have now, and may very well have for the next decade, are three solid electoral blocs: the Northeast, the Midwest, and the West. Consolidating gains made in Virginia and North Carolina could leave the Republicans in the wilderness even longer than they expect.
And Obama's gains did not come at the expense of our big reliably blue states either, several of which also ran ahead of the D+8 national trend:
Illinois
- Obama 61 - McCain 38
- Kerry 55 - Bush 44
Difference: D+12
California
- Obama 61 - McCain 37
- Kerry 54 - Bush 44
Difference: D+14
New York
- Obama 62 - McCain 37
- Kerry 58 - Bush 40
Difference: D+7
New Jersey
- Obama 57 - McCain 42
- Kerry 53 - Bush 46
Difference: D+8
Maryland
- Obama 61 - McCain 38
- Kerry 56 - Bush 43
Difference: D+10