DIARY UPDATED
Thanks to commentors, I made a big booboo and omitted Multnomah County. Sorry!
According to my little spreadsheet, the Oregon Senate race should continue to close as more results come in. Because most outstanding votes are in Democrat-favored areas, I now extrapolate that we'll win Oregon by about 80,000 votes.
As my source data, I've used CNN's numbers: http://edition.cnn.com/...
I've done an extrapolation for the counties in the Oregon. Basically, I've looked at the size of the democratic and republican votes and the percentage of precincts counted. My assumptions are that the population sizes of the remaining precincts is the same, and that the voting ratios of dems to republicans are the same for the unreported precincts of each county.
UPDATE 2: Given the discussion below, I've become rightly confused. I'm tired and have to go home to sleep (I'm in Scotland), so this little goofball of a diary will stay as is unfortunately. I would consider deleting it but the following discussion may be valuable.
Spreadsheet available below the fold.
Previous calculations: (ERRONEOUS)
Currently Republican Smith is at 596,154 and Democrat Merkeley is at 586,731. 70% of precincts are reporting.
According to an extrapolation of the counties with precincts still not reporting, there should be 348,000 votes outstanding.
EXPECTED SCENARIO:
Given the counts we already have for these counties, we expect these remaining votes to be in a ratio of 50.49% Democrat. This would give us a net total of 3,440 new Democrat votes, closing the Republican lead from its current 9,423 votes to 5,983 votes. So, if things continue as they are, we'll lose by about 6,000 votes.
HOPEFUL SCENARIO:
However, if the ratio of the remaining votes is just 51.37% Democrat, then we'll net 9,523 votes and win the thing by 100 votes.
Warnings:
- These numbers are coming in fast and may soon be outdated.
- I need to go home and will not be able to update this diary. However, people can access an editable version of my spreadsheet below. If anyone is smart about embedding tables, please do so.
Google Spreadsheet as webpage
http://spreadsheets.google.com/...
Editable version:
http://spreadsheets.google.com/...
Can someone check whether the total remaining outstanding votes is about 350,000?