Dont kill me for already looking out to the next presidential election, but looking at the 2008 electoral map today, I cant help but think about realignment.
The Rocky Mountains (esp. Colorado) and southwestern states (Nevada, New Mexico, and without McSame on the ballot Arizona too) are trending blue, so are the most northern former Confederate states (Virgina, North Carolina).
But most stunning is what you see when you compare what 2000/2004 swing states have moved into the safe democratic colummn:
Oregon,
Minnesota,
Wisconsin,
Pennsylvania,
New Mexico,
Nevada,
Michigan,
New Hamphire,
all giving Obama double digit victories.
And also
Colorado and Iowa strongly leaning democratic now, both on the presidential and congressional level.
So which are the Swing States for the next presidential election in 2012? Which states have shown a margin of less than 5% for either party?
Some surprises after the fold....
Montana,
Georgia,
Indiana,
North Carolina,
Virginia,
along with the traditional swing states
Missouri,
Ohio,
Florida.
Again: Just three (3) traditional swing states of the 2000/2004 era keep their status as swing states. And five (5) new - and formerly red - states become new battleground states.
Instead of 11 states, there are now only 8 states within a 5% margin, considerably narrowing the playing field.
I would say: not a bad place to start electorally for Obamas reelection effort.