Cross posted at slothropia.com.
Remember how the United States had an election last November 4? And remember how Canada had an election a couple of weeks before that? No? Well, they did.
And in that election, the Conservative Party, lead by Stephen Harper, won a plurality of seats. Since the Tories were in power going into the election, their reward for this modest victory was an invitation from the Governour General (GG for short) to form a new government.
Which they did. And a few weeks ago the Conservatives succeeded in winning a confidence vote in the House of Commons. It looked at the time that the four parties (Conservatives, Liberals, New Democrats and Bloc Quebecois) in the Canadian Parliament were ready to hunker down and deal with the worsening Canadian economy (things are not yet quite as grim in Canada as in the U.S. but there is an old saying that says when the Americans sneeze, Canada gets pneumonia).
You would think that given the seriousness of the times that the Conservatives would proactively seek cooperation with the other parties. You would be wrong. In fact, how could you be so naive?
This past Thursday, Jim Flaherty, the Conservative Finance Minister, delivered in the House of Commons a statement he called 'an economic update", sort of a mini budget and parliamentary agenda, intended to satisfy any demand for the public for immediate government action on the economy as well as to keep Parliament busy and out of mischief.
This update turned out to be a gigantic miscalculation that now threatens the survival of the Conservative government.
Here are the highlights:
*No immediate government stimulus for troubled economy; instead, measures to be announced early next year.
*Razor-thin surplus predicted for 2009-2010, though government stimulus measures next year likely to tip finances into deficit.
*Economy projected in recession now until April 1, 2009.
*Sale of government property and Crown corporations expected to yield $2.3 billion next year, helping to stave off deficit; no details provided.
*Reductions in overall government programs next year to save $2 billion; no details provided.
*Jobless rate to peak at 6.9 per cent for 2009.
*Major reforms planned to scale back equalization program; no details provided.
*Limiting public-sector salary increases to 1.5 per cent to save $600 million next year; right-to-strike to be curtailed.
*Twenty-five per cent reduction in amount required to be withdrawn from a registered retirement income funds (RRIFs) for 2008.
*Modest relief for federally regulated pension plans, allowing them to make solvency payments over 10 years instead of five.
*"Costly and litigious" regime of pay equity to be reformed.
*Proposed elimination of taxpayer-financed subsidies to political parties next year.
Missing from the update was any economic stimulus, a failure that all opposition parties heavily criticized.
The reaction from the three opposition parties was swift and unanimous; All three parties made it clear that they would not support the update statement, which the government intends to present to the House of Commons as yet another confidence vote. Most of the points above are unacceptable to one or more of the three oppo parties, in particular the threat to remove the right to strike from federal government employees (anathema to the NDP and Bloc) and the ending of subsidies to political parties (an existential threat to the Liberals). This much the Conservatives could and no doubt did predict. What they apparently could not foresee was a credible threat by the opposition parties to defeat the Government on a confidence vote in the House and then attempt to form a coalition government. This is constitutionally possible, but requires the approval of the Governor General, the Queen's representative in Canada.
The terms of the proposed coalition would see the Liberals forming a government but with the NDP having perhaps a third of the cabinet positions. The Bloc Quebecois would provide support in the House in exchange for some part of their agenda but would not formally be in the government. This is a high level view of what the parties are negotiating now. There are a thousand devils hidden in the details.
The Update document was to come to a vote in the Commons on Monday December 1, but Harper has delayed the vote until December 8. The Liberals have drafted a non confidence motion that was to be voted on on Monday, which was to be an opposition day in the parliamentary calendar - a day on which one of the opposition parties gets to set the agenda. Harper has also delayed the opposition day, and thus the non confidence vote, by a week. Harper and the Conservatives have taken a number of other steps since last Thursday to try and avoid their downfall. The elimination of subsidies to federal parties is off the table, as is the elimination of right to strike in the federal civil service. And the Finance Minister announced today that there would be a budget tabled in late January, a month ahead of schedule, and that it would contain measures to stimulate the economy. Clearly, the Prime Minister and hi9s party are frightened and fighting for the survival of the Government, but it may be too late.
Harper can't say he will play nicely from now on, but the other parties are wise not to trust him. Harper is known for being something of a bully, and tries to govern like Bush Rove did in the U.S. That is to govern only for their base and to crush and humiliate any of their political foes that might oppose them. The media narrative in Canada is that Harper's problems are of his own making. The Libs, NDP and Bloc know that if they are to defeat Harper, it must be done now and done completely. They have nothing to lose and much to gain by forming a governing coalition.
The Conservatives are also going on the offensive. They are raising funds to pay for attack ads and calling on their supporters to pressure the opposition parties to back off. Meanwhile, the three opposition parties have another week to negotiate the details of the coalition.
As far as the U.S. and the Obama administration are concerned, a Liberal/NDP coalition government would be easier to get along with than the Conservative Neocons. Harper is not on the same economic page as Obama and shares W's blind faith in the power of market forces top solve all problems. Though I am sure no one in the new administration would be so undiplomatic as to say so.
Here is a link to the Globe and Mail, Canada's answer to the New York Times. A good source of Canadian political news and opinion.
And for dessert, here is Canada's own Feist. Who doesn't like Feist?